A cautious snapshot of a small user-created Manifold market, other platform checks, and interpretation limits.
Evidence Cards
Card #01: Dedicated Manifold market verified
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/144
A 59% play-money snapshot checked August 15, with six unique bettors and broad resolution criteria.
[VERIFIED FACT] A user-created Manifold market about the Lindsay Clancy outcome was verified on August 15, 2026. At 12:09:49 p.m. Eastern it displayed 59%; the official API reported six unique bettors, 21 bet records, and about 572 Mana in volume. [VERIFIED FACT] Its YES criteria combine murder, manslaughter, another criminally culpable charge, or a qualifying plea, so the percentage is not a clean forecast of the pending murder counts.
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Card #02: Search limitations
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/145
An absence result is not permanent proof.
[UNKNOWN] The searches cannot prove that no closed, private, newly created, misspelled, or differently titled market exists; platform inventories can change after the archive cutoff. [Polymarket public search](https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=Lindsay%20Clancy) · [Kalshi open-market API](https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?limit=1000&status=open)
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Card #03: How to read the market snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146
Play-money participation data, not evidence of guilt, criminal responsibility, or the eventual verdict.
[VERIFIED FACT] Manifold describes Mana as play money that cannot be converted to cash, and this market had only six unique bettors at the recorded snapshot. [UNKNOWN] The 59% figure cannot establish the legal outcome or criminal responsibility; it records trades in one small user-created market with broad resolution criteria.
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Card #04: Manifold market moved to 49% — August 16 evening snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/191
A dated 49% play-money reading with 38 bet records and eight unique bettors; it is sentiment data, not courtroom evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:08:39 p.m. Eastern on August 16, Manifold's official API reported a 49% reading, approximately 975.45 Mana in total volume, approximately 403.20 Mana in 24-hour volume, eight unique bettors, and 38 bet records. Bet records may include cancelled or zero-amount entries and therefore are not described as 38 completed trades. The latest recorded market activity occurred at 1:57:42.623 p.m. Eastern, while the market remained unresolved. [UNKNOWN] The public market data do not establish why traders moved the price and cannot establish guilt, criminal responsibility, or the eventual verdict.
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Card #05: Polymarket launches a Lindsay Clancy murder-conviction market · August 18
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/209
A new low-volume Polymarket contract showed 68% Yes at 7:05 p.m., but its wide spread, small liquidity, deadline, and murder-only rules make it sentiment—not evidence or a clean forecast.
[VERIFIED FACT] Polymarket launched an exact Lindsay Clancy market at about 4:00 p.m. Eastern on August 18. At 7:05 p.m., the active unresolved contract showed 68% Yes and 32% No,
29.60 volume, about
49.94 liquidity, and a 46-cent bid versus 90-cent ask. [VERIFIED FACT] Yes requires at least one murder conviction by December 31, 2026, or after a qualifying retrial begun by then; an all-murder acquittal including lack of criminal responsibility resolves No. [SPECULATION] The price is thin, wide-spread trader sentiment and is not courtroom evidence, a jury poll, or directly comparable to Manifold's differently worded play-money question.
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Card #06: Polymarket snapshot · August 19 noon
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/212
The new murder-conviction market moved to 63.5% Yes as volume and liquidity increased and its spread narrowed; it remains a small sentiment market, not evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:01 p.m. Eastern on August 19, the active unresolved Polymarket contract showed 63.5% Yes and 36.5% No, $581.32 volume, about $322.89 liquidity, and a 63-cent bid versus 64-cent ask. [VERIFIED FACT] Since the August 18 evening snapshot, Yes fell 4.5 percentage points while volume rose by about $451.72, liquidity rose by about
72.95, and the spread narrowed from 44 cents to one cent. [SPECULATION] This is still a small prediction market's sentiment snapshot—not evidence, testimony, a jury poll, or a reliable estimate of the legal result.
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Card #07: Polymarket snapshot · August 19 evening
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/216
The contract displayed 70% Yes after additional trading, but its last trade was 64 cents and the bid-ask spread widened; this remains small-market sentiment, not evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:02 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved Polymarket contract displayed 70% Yes and 30% No, a 64-cent last trade, 65-cent bid, 75-cent ask, $722.14 total volume, and about $314.86 liquidity. Since noon, Yes rose 6.5 points and volume grew by about
40.82 while the displayed spread widened from one cent to ten cents. [SPECULATION] This is a small prediction market's sentiment snapshot—not evidence, testimony, a jury poll, or a reliable estimate of the legal result.
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Card #08: Polymarket snapshot · August 20 noon
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/219
The contract displayed 65.5% Yes with more volume and liquidity and a tighter spread; this remains small-market sentiment, not evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:02 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved Polymarket contract displayed 65.5% Yes and 34.5% No, a 63-cent last trade, 65-cent bid, 66-cent ask, $963.87 total volume, and about $462.02 liquidity. Since the prior evening, Yes fell 4.5 points while volume and liquidity rose and the spread narrowed from ten cents to one cent. [SPECULATION] This is a small prediction market's sentiment snapshot—not evidence, testimony, a jury poll, or a reliable estimate of the result.
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Card #09: Manifold snapshot · August 20 noon
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/220
The play-money market moved to about 57.1% with additional Mana and participants; it remains sentiment data, not courtroom evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:03 p.m. Eastern, the unresolved Manifold market displayed about 57.06%, 1,622.43 Mana total volume, 645.98 Mana in 24-hour volume, 11 unique bettors, and 51 API bet records. Since the prior archived snapshot it rose about eight percentage points with three more bettors. Records can include cancelled or zero-value entries and are not all completed trades. [UNKNOWN] The market cannot establish evidence, guilt, criminal responsibility, or the verdict.
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Card #10: Manifold snapshot · August 20 evening
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/222
A filled 500-Mana No position moved the small play-money market from about 57.1% to 30.1%; this is trader sentiment, not evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:03 p.m. Eastern, the unresolved Manifold market displayed about 30.15%, 2,154.43 Mana total volume, 1,177.98 Mana in 24-hour volume, 11 unique bettors, and 55 API activity records. A filled 500-Mana No position at 5:58 p.m. led a roughly 26.91-point fall from the noon reading. [UNKNOWN] This small, user-created play-money market cannot reveal why a trader acted and does not establish evidence, guilt, criminal responsibility, or the eventual verdict.
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Card #11: Polymarket snapshot · August 21 noon
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/226
The small contract moved to 61.5% Yes after three overnight trades; this is trader sentiment, not courtroom evidence or a jury poll.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:01 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved Polymarket contract displayed 61.5% Yes, 38.5% No, a 62-cent last trade, 61-cent bid, 62-cent ask,
,148.56 total volume, and about $647.97 liquidity. Three overnight trades added
84.69 of volume. [SPECULATION] The contract remains a small market sentiment snapshot, not evidence, adjudication, jury polling, or a dependable verdict probability.
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Card #12: Manifold snapshot · August 21 noon
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/227
A filled 50-Mana Yes position moved the small play-money market to about 34.8%; its direction diverged from Polymarket and is not evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:01 p.m. Eastern, the unresolved Manifold market displayed about 34.75%, 2,236.43 Mana total volume, 1,177.98 Mana in 24-hour volume, 11 unique bettors, and 59 activity records. A 50-Mana Yes position moved it about 4.60 points above the prior evening. [UNKNOWN] The opposite direction from Polymarket and unchanged bettor count underscore that these thin user-driven markets are not evidence or reliable forecasts.
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Card #13: Polymarket snapshot · August 21 evening
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/230
The tiny contract's displayed midpoint fell to 37.5%, but its last trade remained 62% and its bid-ask spread widened to 25 points—three different signals, none courtroom evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:02 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved contract displayed 37.5% Yes, while the last trade was 62 cents and the Yes order book was 25-cent bid/50-cent ask. Seven post-noon fills added $784.74 of volume. [SPECULATION] A wide spread and small turnover make any single displayed number especially poor shorthand for consensus; the market is not evidence, adjudication, or a jury poll.
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Card #14: Manifold snapshot · August 21 evening
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/231
The small play-money market moved to about 37.8% after mixed activity and one additional bettor; it remains a user-driven signal, not evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:02 p.m. Eastern, the unresolved Manifold market displayed about 37.81%, 2,341.73 Mana total volume, 187.29 Mana in rolling 24-hour volume, 12 unique bettors, and 66 API records. Total volume rose 105.29 Mana since noon. [UNKNOWN] The records include mixed and cancelled activity, and they do not reveal why anyone traded or establish a reliable forecast.
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Card #15: Polymarket snapshot · August 23 noon
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/232
Two tiny fills accompanied a four-point drop in displayed Yes and a much lower last-trade field, but $9.83 of new turnover and a 14-point spread make the signal especially noisy.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:02 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved contract displayed 32% Yes and 68% No, while its last-trade field was 25 cents and the Yes order book was 25-cent bid/39-cent ask. Two new records since Saturday evening added only $9.83 of reported volume. [UNKNOWN] The public records do not establish why either participant traded. [SPECULATION] This thin, wide-spread market is sentiment—not case evidence, an adjudication, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability.
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Card #16: Polymarket snapshot · August 23 evening
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/233
Five fills added about $876 of volume as displayed Yes fell from 32% to 21% and the spread narrowed to four points; the move remains trader sentiment, not case evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:01 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved contract displayed 21% Yes and 79% No, while its last-trade field was 20 cents and the Yes order book was 19-cent bid/23-cent ask. Five post-noon fills added $875.99 of reported volume. [UNKNOWN] The public records show the trades but do not establish why participants acted. [SPECULATION] Even with a narrower spread and more turnover, this market is not sworn evidence, an adjudication, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability.
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Card #17: Polymarket snapshot · August 24 noon
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/236
Three morning fills accompanied a seven-point rise to 28% Yes, while the spread widened and liquidity fell; the thin market remains sentiment, not evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:01 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved contract displayed 28% Yes and 72% No, a 24-cent last-trade field, and a 23/33-cent Yes book. Three morning fills added $78.33 of reported volume. [UNKNOWN] The public records do not establish why participants traded. [SPECULATION] The change is not testimony, a court finding, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability.
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Card #18: Manifold snapshot · August 24 noon
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/237
The small play-money market reached 41.54% after mixed API activity and two additional bettors since the last published snapshot; it remains sentiment, not evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:01 p.m. Eastern, the unresolved Manifold market reported 41.54%, 2,416.70 Mana total volume, 69.97 Mana rolling 24-hour volume, 14 unique bettors, and 71 API records. Since the last published snapshot, five new records included filled, cancelled, and cash-out activity. [UNKNOWN] The records do not reveal participants' reasons or provide a reliable legal forecast.
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Card #19: Polymarket snapshot · August 24 evening
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/240
Four later records accompanied a retreat from the noon display to 23.5% Yes and a narrower book; this remains thin trader sentiment rather than evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:03 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved contract displayed 23.5% Yes and 76.5% No, a 22-cent last-trade field, and a 22/25-cent Yes book. Four records were added after the noon capture, including three around 3:28 p.m. and one at 7:01 p.m. [UNKNOWN] The records do not establish participant motives or link the movement to particular testimony. [SPECULATION] The market is not evidence, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability.
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Card #20: Prediction markets · first deliberation-day evening snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/256
Two unresolved platforms displayed sharply different murder-conviction estimates after the first deliberation day, underscoring that market prices are platform sentiment rather than evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:02 p.m. ET, Polymarket displayed 31% Yes and 69% No, a 28-cent last-trade field, a 28/34-cent Yes book, $40,797.68 reported total volume, and $5,938.30 liquidity. Manifold displayed 67.31%, $3,812.48 total volume, and remained unresolved. [SPECULATION] The 36-point cross-platform gap demonstrates different platform participation, mechanics, and beliefs; neither market is evidence, a jury poll, an authenticated deliberation signal, or a dependable verdict probability. [UNKNOWN] No public information establishes why either market moved or how any participant interpreted the completed closings.
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Card #21: Prediction markets · second deliberation-day noon snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/258
Polymarket's displayed Yes price rose six points from the prior archive capture while Manifold was unchanged, widening the platforms' usefulness as a caution about sentiment—not as evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At approximately 12:03 p.m. ET, Polymarket displayed 37% Yes and 63% No, a 38-cent last-trade field, a 36/38-cent Yes book, $53,235.21 reported total volume, and $6,401.60 liquidity. That Yes display was six points above the archive's 7:02 p.m. capture the prior evening. Manifold remained at 67.31% with $3,812.48 total volume. [SPECULATION] The platforms continued to differ by about 30 points. These values show platform participation and sentiment, not evidence, an authenticated deliberation leak, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability. [UNKNOWN] No public information establishes why Polymarket moved.
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Card #22: Prediction markets · second deliberation-day evening snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/261
Both unresolved platforms moved lower after the jury adjourned for the weekend, while retaining a roughly 29-point cross-platform gap—further reason to treat them as sentiment, never evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:02:48 p.m. ET, Polymarket displayed 29.5% Yes and 70.5% No, a 30-cent last-trade field, a 29/30-cent Yes book, $56,418.22 reported total volume, and $25,336.79 liquidity. The Yes display was 7.5 points below the noon archive capture. Manifold displayed 58.85% with $4,155.90 total volume, approximately 8.45 points below its noon capture. [SPECULATION] The unresolved platforms still differed by approximately 29.35 points. Neither movement nor divergence is evidence, an authenticated deliberation leak, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability. [UNKNOWN] No public information establishes why traders moved either market.
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Card #23: Prediction markets · weekend convergence snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/263
Polymarket displayed 33.5% and Manifold 36.27% after sharply different weekend moves; their convergence remains platform sentiment, not evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:06:34 p.m. Eastern on August 29, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 33.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 36.27%. Since the prior evening archive capture, Polymarket rose four percentage points while Manifold fell about 22.58 points, narrowing the cross-platform gap from about 29.35 points to about 2.77 points. Manifold reported 5,101.85 Mana total volume; its official description identifies Mana as play money, correcting the prior archive card's dollar-style volume formatting. [SPECULATION] Similar percentages do not make either market a representative or dependable verdict forecast. [UNKNOWN] The public platform records do not establish why participants traded or whether any activity was connected to trial reporting.
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Card #24: Prediction markets · third deliberation-day noon snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/265
Polymarket displayed 35.5% and Manifold 51.82% after Manifold rose about 13.60 points since Sunday evening; the divergence is platform sentiment, not evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:04:40 p.m. Eastern on August 31, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 35.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 51.82%. Since the Sunday-evening archive capture, Polymarket rose 2.0 percentage points and Manifold rose about 13.60 points; the absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 4.72 points to about 16.32 points. Polymarket reported $92,649.87 total volume and Manifold reported 5,773.78 Mana total volume. [SPECULATION] The divergent percentages and moves are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public platform records do not establish why participants traded or whether activity followed public trial coverage.
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Card #25: Prediction markets · third deliberation-day evening snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/267
After the jury adjourned without a verdict, Polymarket displayed 29.5% and Manifold remained at 51.82%; the 22.32-point divergence is platform sentiment, not evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:04:44 p.m. Eastern on August 31, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 29.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 51.82%. Since the noon archive capture, Polymarket fell 6.0 percentage points while reported total volume rose by about $7,755.02; Manifold's displayed probability and reported volume were unchanged. The absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 16.32 points to about 22.32 points. [SPECULATION] The divergent percentages and moves are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public platform records do not establish why participants traded or whether activity followed the no-verdict adjournment or other public coverage.
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Card #26: Prediction markets · fourth deliberation-day noon snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/269
After the public impasse note, Polymarket displayed 17.5% and Manifold 48.75%; their 31.25-point divergence is platform sentiment, not evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:04:50 p.m. Eastern on September 1, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 17.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 48.75%. Since the August 31 evening capture, Polymarket fell 12.0 percentage points while reported total volume rose about $31,059.76; Manifold fell about 3.07 points while reported total volume rose 131 Mana. The absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 22.32 points to about 31.25 points. [SPECULATION] The displays and movements are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public APIs do not establish why participants traded or how much, if any, movement followed the public impasse note rather than other coverage.
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Card #27: Prediction markets · fourth deliberation-day evening snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/271
After Day 25 ended without a verdict, Polymarket displayed 16.5% and Manifold 42.69%; their 26.19-point divergence is platform sentiment, not evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:03:26 p.m. Eastern on September 1, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 16.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 42.69%. Since the noon capture, Polymarket fell 1.0 percentage point while reported total volume rose about
7,208.93; Manifold fell about 6.06 points while reported total volume rose about 202.69 Mana. The absolute cross-platform gap narrowed from about 31.25 points to about 26.19 points. [SPECULATION] These displays and movements are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public APIs do not establish why participants traded or whether activity followed the no-verdict adjournment, the impasse coverage, or other public commentary.
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Card #28: Prediction markets · fifth deliberation-day noon snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/273
Polymarket displayed 20.0% and Manifold 55.47%; both rose from the prior evening, but their 35.47-point divergence remains platform sentiment rather than evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:00:35 p.m. Eastern on September 2, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 20.0% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 55.47%. Since the September 1 evening capture, Polymarket rose 3.5 percentage points while reported total volume rose about $5,997.41; Manifold rose about 12.78 points while reported total volume rose about 439.56 Mana. The absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 26.19 points to about 35.47 points. [SPECULATION] These figures are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public APIs do not establish why participants traded or whether the moves were caused by the fifth deliberation day, the juror inquiry, general coverage, or other factors.
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Card #29: Prediction markets · sixth deliberation-day noon snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/276
Polymarket displayed 15.5% and Manifold 51.49%; both fell from the prior noon, while their 35.99-point divergence remained platform sentiment rather than evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:06:34 p.m. Eastern on September 3, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 15.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 51.49%. Since the September 2 noon capture, Polymarket fell 4.5 percentage points while reported total volume rose about $33,359.54; Manifold fell about 3.98 points while reported total volume rose about 574.88 Mana. The absolute cross-platform gap widened slightly from about 35.47 points to about 35.99 points. [SPECULATION] These figures are platform sentiment, not evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public APIs do not establish why participants traded or whether the moves were caused by the second impasse, the Tuey-Rodriguez charge, the sixth deliberation day, media coverage, or other factors.
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Card #30: Prediction markets · sixth deliberation-day evening snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/278
Polymarket displayed 6.5% and Manifold 46.57%; both fell after the juror dispute and no-verdict adjournment, but their 40.07-point gap remains platform sentiment rather than evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:03:20 p.m. Eastern on September 3, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 6.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 46.57%. Since the noon capture, Polymarket fell 9.0 percentage points while reported total volume rose about $44,369.31; Manifold fell about 4.92 points while reported total volume rose about 361.23 Mana. The absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 35.99 points to about 40.07 points. [SPECULATION] These figures are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The APIs do not establish why participants traded or whether the moves were caused by the foreperson note, the juror-removal dispute, the no-verdict adjournment, media coverage, or other factors.
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