Card #05: Polymarket launches a Lindsay Clancy murder-conviction market · August 18
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/209
A new low-volume Polymarket contract showed 68% Yes at 7:05 p.m., but its wide spread, small liquidity, deadline, and murder-only rules make it sentiment—not evidence or a clean forecast.
[VERIFIED FACT] Polymarket launched an exact Lindsay Clancy market at about 4:00 p.m. Eastern on August 18. At 7:05 p.m., the active unresolved contract showed 68% Yes and 32% No,
29.60 volume, about
49.94 liquidity, and a 46-cent bid versus 90-cent ask. [VERIFIED FACT] Yes requires at least one murder conviction by December 31, 2026, or after a qualifying retrial begun by then; an all-murder acquittal including lack of criminal responsibility resolves No. [SPECULATION] The price is thin, wide-spread trader sentiment and is not courtroom evidence, a jury poll, or directly comparable to Manifold's differently worded play-money question.
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Topic: Prediction Markets. Comments: 0.