Card #30: Prediction markets · sixth deliberation-day evening snapshot
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Polymarket displayed 6.5% and Manifold 46.57%; both fell after the juror dispute and no-verdict adjournment, but their 40.07-point gap remains platform sentiment rather than evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:03:20 p.m. Eastern on September 3, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 6.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 46.57%. Since the noon capture, Polymarket fell 9.0 percentage points while reported total volume rose about $44,369.31; Manifold fell about 4.92 points while reported total volume rose about 361.23 Mana. The absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 35.99 points to about 40.07 points. [SPECULATION] These figures are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The APIs do not establish why participants traded or whether the moves were caused by the foreperson note, the juror-removal dispute, the no-verdict adjournment, media coverage, or other factors.
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Topic: Prediction Markets. Comments: 0.