Card #99: Prediction markets · fourth deliberation-day noon snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/269
After the public impasse note, Polymarket displayed 17.5% and Manifold 48.75%; their 31.25-point divergence is platform sentiment, not evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:04:50 p.m. Eastern on September 1, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 17.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 48.75%. Since the August 31 evening capture, Polymarket fell 12.0 percentage points while reported total volume rose about $31,059.76; Manifold fell about 3.07 points while reported total volume rose 131 Mana. The absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 22.32 points to about 31.25 points. [SPECULATION] The displays and movements are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public APIs do not establish why participants traded or how much, if any, movement followed the public impasse note rather than other coverage.
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Topic: Unresolved Questions. Comments: 0.