Card #88: Prediction markets · second deliberation-day noon snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/258
Polymarket's displayed Yes price rose six points from the prior archive capture while Manifold was unchanged, widening the platforms' usefulness as a caution about sentiment—not as evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At approximately 12:03 p.m. ET, Polymarket displayed 37% Yes and 63% No, a 38-cent last-trade field, a 36/38-cent Yes book, $53,235.21 reported total volume, and $6,401.60 liquidity. That Yes display was six points above the archive's 7:02 p.m. capture the prior evening. Manifold remained at 67.31% with $3,812.48 total volume. [SPECULATION] The platforms continued to differ by about 30 points. These values show platform participation and sentiment, not evidence, an authenticated deliberation leak, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability. [UNKNOWN] No public information establishes why Polymarket moved.
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Topic: Unresolved Questions. Comments: 0.