Card #62: Polymarket snapshot · August 23 noon
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/232
Two tiny fills accompanied a four-point drop in displayed Yes and a much lower last-trade field, but $9.83 of new turnover and a 14-point spread make the signal especially noisy.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:02 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved contract displayed 32% Yes and 68% No, while its last-trade field was 25 cents and the Yes order book was 25-cent bid/39-cent ask. Two new records since Saturday evening added only $9.83 of reported volume. [UNKNOWN] The public records do not establish why either participant traded. [SPECULATION] This thin, wide-spread market is sentiment—not case evidence, an adjudication, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability.
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Topic: Unresolved Questions. Comments: 0.