Polymarket snapshot · August 21 evening | Unresolved Questions

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Card #60: Polymarket snapshot · August 21 evening

Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/230

The tiny contract's displayed midpoint fell to 37.5%, but its last trade remained 62% and its bid-ask spread widened to 25 points—three different signals, none courtroom evidence.

[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:02 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved contract displayed 37.5% Yes, while the last trade was 62 cents and the Yes order book was 25-cent bid/50-cent ask. Seven post-noon fills added $784.74 of volume. [SPECULATION] A wide spread and small turnover make any single displayed number especially poor shorthand for consensus; the market is not evidence, adjudication, or a jury poll.