Card #42: Polymarket snapshot · August 19 noon
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/212
The new murder-conviction market moved to 63.5% Yes as volume and liquidity increased and its spread narrowed; it remains a small sentiment market, not evidence.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:01 p.m. Eastern on August 19, the active unresolved Polymarket contract showed 63.5% Yes and 36.5% No, $581.32 volume, about $322.89 liquidity, and a 63-cent bid versus 64-cent ask. [VERIFIED FACT] Since the August 18 evening snapshot, Yes fell 4.5 percentage points while volume rose by about $451.72, liquidity rose by about
72.95, and the spread narrowed from 44 cents to one cent. [SPECULATION] This is still a small prediction market's sentiment snapshot—not evidence, testimony, a jury poll, or a reliable estimate of the legal result.
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Topic: Unresolved Questions. Comments: 0.