Card #97: Prediction markets · fifth deliberation-day noon snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/273
Polymarket displayed 20.0% and Manifold 55.47%; both rose from the prior evening, but their 35.47-point divergence remains platform sentiment rather than evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:00:35 p.m. Eastern on September 2, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 20.0% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 55.47%. Since the September 1 evening capture, Polymarket rose 3.5 percentage points while reported total volume rose about $5,997.41; Manifold rose about 12.78 points while reported total volume rose about 439.56 Mana. The absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 26.19 points to about 35.47 points. [SPECULATION] These figures are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public APIs do not establish why participants traded or whether the moves were caused by the fifth deliberation day, the juror inquiry, general coverage, or other factors.
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Topic: Trial-Day Developments. Comments: 0.