Card #94: Prediction markets · third deliberation-day evening snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/267
After the jury adjourned without a verdict, Polymarket displayed 29.5% and Manifold remained at 51.82%; the 22.32-point divergence is platform sentiment, not evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:04:44 p.m. Eastern on August 31, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 29.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 51.82%. Since the noon archive capture, Polymarket fell 6.0 percentage points while reported total volume rose by about $7,755.02; Manifold's displayed probability and reported volume were unchanged. The absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 16.32 points to about 22.32 points. [SPECULATION] The divergent percentages and moves are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public platform records do not establish why participants traded or whether activity followed the no-verdict adjournment or other public coverage.
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Topic: Trial-Day Developments. Comments: 0.