Card #101: Prediction markets · sixth deliberation-day noon snapshot
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Polymarket displayed 15.5% and Manifold 51.49%; both fell from the prior noon, while their 35.99-point divergence remained platform sentiment rather than evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:06:34 p.m. Eastern on September 3, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 15.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 51.49%. Since the September 2 noon capture, Polymarket fell 4.5 percentage points while reported total volume rose about $33,359.54; Manifold fell about 3.98 points while reported total volume rose about 574.88 Mana. The absolute cross-platform gap widened slightly from about 35.47 points to about 35.99 points. [SPECULATION] These figures are platform sentiment, not evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public APIs do not establish why participants traded or whether the moves were caused by the second impasse, the Tuey-Rodriguez charge, the sixth deliberation day, media coverage, or other factors.
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Topic: Source Library & Methodology. Comments: 0.