Card #90: Prediction markets · third deliberation-day noon snapshot
Canonical URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology/card/265
Polymarket displayed 35.5% and Manifold 51.82% after Manifold rose about 13.60 points since Sunday evening; the divergence is platform sentiment, not evidence or jury information.
[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:04:40 p.m. Eastern on August 31, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 35.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 51.82%. Since the Sunday-evening archive capture, Polymarket rose 2.0 percentage points and Manifold rose about 13.60 points; the absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 4.72 points to about 16.32 points. Polymarket reported $92,649.87 total volume and Manifold reported 5,773.78 Mana total volume. [SPECULATION] The divergent percentages and moves are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public platform records do not establish why participants traded or whether activity followed public trial coverage.
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Topic: Source Library & Methodology. Comments: 0.