# Prediction markets · fourth deliberation-day evening snapshot

Topic: Unresolved Questions
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/271
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/271.md
Updated: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #101: Prediction markets · fourth deliberation-day evening snapshot

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/271
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/271.md
- Topic: Unresolved Questions
- Updated: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:fourth-deliberation-day-evening-snapshot-20260901
- Published: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z
- Materially updated: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z
- Comments: 0

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 26)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 89)
- Cross-filed: Trial-Day Developments — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments (sort 80)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 94)

Summary:

After Day 25 ended without a verdict, Polymarket displayed 16.5% and Manifold 42.69%; their 26.19-point divergence is platform sentiment, not evidence or jury information.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:03:26 p.m. Eastern on September 1, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 16.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 42.69%. Since the noon capture, Polymarket fell 1.0 percentage point while reported total volume rose about $17,208.93; Manifold fell about 6.06 points while reported total volume rose about 202.69 Mana. The absolute cross-platform gap narrowed from about 31.25 points to about 26.19 points. [SPECULATION] These displays and movements are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public APIs do not establish why participants traded or whether activity followed the no-verdict adjournment, the impasse coverage, or other public commentary.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 7:03:26 p.m. Eastern on September 1, active unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed Yes/No 0.165/0.835, last-trade field 0.17, best Yes bid 0.16, ask 0.17, reported total volume $148,673.580717, rolling 24-hour volume $48,285.354047, and liquidity $20,166.0846.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-polymarket-20260901-1903
  - Created: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The displayed outcome price, last trade, order book, volume, and liquidity are distinct platform fields; none reveals jury discussions or a legal outcome.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official Gamma API fields captured at 7:03:26 p.m. ET September 1, 2026) [primary]
- [verified_fact] At the same capture time, unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed probability 0.4269407407, 6,107.465902 Mana total volume, 343.690653 Mana rolling 24-hour volume, and 22 unique bettors.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-manifold-20260901-1903
  - Created: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Manifold uses play-money Mana and has different mechanics and participation from Polymarket; its displayed probability is not court evidence or a calibrated jury forecast.
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official market API fields captured at 7:03:26 p.m. ET September 1, 2026) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Compared with the archived September 1 12:04:50 p.m. snapshots, Polymarket's Yes display fell 1.0 percentage point and total volume rose about $17,208.93, while Manifold's probability fell about 6.06 points and total volume rose about 202.69 Mana; the absolute platform gap narrowed from about 31.25 points to about 26.19 points.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-evening-divergence-20260901
  - Created: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The arithmetic establishes platform movement, not its cause. The APIs do not show whether movement followed the impasse or adjournment, and divergent prices do not establish guilt, criminal responsibility, or private jury information.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Current official fields compared with the archive's September 1 12:04:50 p.m. official API capture) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Current official fields compared with the archive's September 1 12:04:50 p.m. official API capture) [primary]
- [speculation] The 16.5% and 42.69% platform displays are sentiment records, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-evening-markets-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: No public source establishes traders' motives, and the movements support no inference about guilt, criminal responsibility, staging, or third-party involvement.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official unresolved Polymarket snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official unresolved Manifold snapshot) [primary]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:fourth-deliberation-evening-supersedes-noon
  - Published: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-polymarket-20260901-1903, lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-manifold-20260901-1903, lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-evening-divergence-20260901, lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-evening-markets-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · fourth deliberation-day noon snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/269. The evening capture replaces the noon snapshot after both platforms moved and Day 25 ended without a verdict, while preserving the distinction between platform sentiment and court evidence.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:standing-limits-qualify-fourth-deliberation-evening
  - Published: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-evening-markets-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's standing market-method limits require interpreting the current platform displays as sentiment rather than evidence, adjudication, or authenticated jury information.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:fifth-deliberation-noon-supersedes-prior-evening
  - Published: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:fifth-deliberation-polymarket-20260902-1200, lc:markets:claim:fifth-deliberation-manifold-20260902-1200, lc:markets:claim:fifth-deliberation-noon-change-20260902, lc:markets:claim:fifth-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · fifth deliberation-day noon snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/273. The September 2 noon capture replaces the September 1 evening snapshot after material movement on both platforms, while preserving the distinction between platform sentiment and court evidence.
Links:
- https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-o
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

Attachments:
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