# Prediction markets · second deliberation-day noon snapshot

Topic: Unresolved Questions
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/258
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/258.md
Updated: 2026-08-28T16:06:28.641Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #88: Prediction markets · second deliberation-day noon snapshot

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/258
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/258.md
- Topic: Unresolved Questions
- Updated: 2026-08-28T16:06:28.641Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:second-deliberation-day-noon-snapshot-20260828
- Published: 2026-08-28T16:06:28.641Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-28T16:06:28.641Z
- Comments: 0

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 20)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 76)
- Cross-filed: Trial-Day Developments — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments (sort 67)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 81)

Summary:

Polymarket's displayed Yes price rose six points from the prior archive capture while Manifold was unchanged, widening the platforms' usefulness as a caution about sentiment—not as evidence or jury information.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At approximately 12:03 p.m. ET, Polymarket displayed 37% Yes and 63% No, a 38-cent last-trade field, a 36/38-cent Yes book, $53,235.21 reported total volume, and $6,401.60 liquidity. That Yes display was six points above the archive's 7:02 p.m. capture the prior evening. Manifold remained at 67.31% with $3,812.48 total volume. [SPECULATION] The platforms continued to differ by about 30 points. These values show platform participation and sentiment, not evidence, an authenticated deliberation leak, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability. [UNKNOWN] No public information establishes why Polymarket moved.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At approximately 12:03 p.m. Eastern on August 28, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed Yes/No 0.37/0.63, last-trade field 0.38, best Yes bid 0.36, ask 0.38, reported total volume $53,235.212935, and liquidity $6,401.5983.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-polymarket-20260828-1203
  - Created: 2026-08-28T16:06:28.641Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-28T16:06:28.641Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The Yes display was six points above the archive's prior-evening capture; displayed probability, last trade, and bid-ask fields are different measures and none reveals jury information.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official Gamma API fields captured at approximately 12:03 p.m. ET) [primary]
- [verified_fact] At the same capture time, unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed probability 0.6730583540 and reported total volume $3,812.479775, unchanged from the prior archive capture.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-manifold-20260828-1203
  - Created: 2026-08-28T16:06:28.641Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-28T16:06:28.641Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Manifold and Polymarket have different participation, mechanics, and resolution processes; their displays are not directly calibrated or equivalent odds.
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official market API fields captured at approximately 12:03 p.m. ET) [primary]
- [speculation] The approximately 30-point cross-platform difference and Polymarket's movement are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or a dependable verdict forecast.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-08-28T16:06:28.641Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-28T16:06:28.641Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: No public source establishes why traders moved the market; the snapshot supports no inference about guilt, criminal responsibility, staging, or third-party involvement.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official unresolved Polymarket snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official unresolved Manifold snapshot) [primary]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:second-deliberation-noon-supersedes-first-day-evening
  - Published: 2026-08-28T16:06:28.641Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-polymarket-20260828-1203, lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-manifold-20260828-1203, lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · first deliberation-day evening snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/256. The noon capture replaces the prior-evening market snapshot with current unresolved figures while preserving the distinction between platform sentiment and evidence.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:standing-limits-qualify-second-deliberation-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-28T16:06:28.641Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's standing market-method limits require interpreting the updated platform displays as sentiment rather than evidence, adjudication, or an authenticated jury signal.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:second-deliberation-evening-supersedes-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-28T23:08:44.570Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-polymarket-20260828-1902, lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-manifold-20260828-1902, lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-evening-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · second deliberation-day evening snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/261. The evening capture replaces the noon market snapshot with current unresolved figures after the jury adjourned for the weekend while preserving the sentiment-versus-evidence boundary.
Links:
- https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-o
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

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