# Manifold snapshot · August 21 evening

Topic: Unresolved Questions
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/231
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/231.md
Updated: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #61: Manifold snapshot · August 21 evening

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/231
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/231.md
- Topic: Unresolved Questions
- Updated: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:manifold-snapshot-20260821-evening
- Published: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
- Comments: 0
- Recent change: new at 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 13)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 56)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 54)

Summary:

The small play-money market moved to about 37.8% after mixed activity and one additional bettor; it remains a user-driven signal, not evidence.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:02 p.m. Eastern, the unresolved Manifold market displayed about 37.81%, 2,341.73 Mana total volume, 187.29 Mana in rolling 24-hour volume, 12 unique bettors, and 66 API records. Total volume rose 105.29 Mana since noon. [UNKNOWN] The records include mixed and cancelled activity, and they do not reveal why anyone traded or establish a reliable forecast.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 7:02:17.575 p.m. Eastern on August 21, the unresolved Manifold market reported probability 0.3781251299, 2,341.7291713288246 Mana total volume, 187.29450169792207 Mana 24-hour volume, 12 unique bettors, and 66 API activity records.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260821-1902
  - Created: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The rolling 24-hour decrease mainly reflects older activity expiring; API record count is not equivalent to completed trades or unique participants.
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official API snapshot captured 7:02:17.575 p.m. ET) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API bet records for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=ytIdLCSgAR&limit=1000 (66 returned activity records at the stated snapshot) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Since noon, displayed probability rose about 3.062 percentage points, total volume rose 105.294502 Mana, unique bettors increased by one, and seven API records were added; the activity included a filled 50-Mana Yes position as well as mixed and cancelled records.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-change-20260821-afternoon
  - Created: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The public records do not disclose traders' reasons, and record-count growth should not be described as seven trades.
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Evening fields compared with archived August 21 noon snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API bet records for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=ytIdLCSgAR&limit=1000 (Post-noon filled, mixed, and cancelled activity records through 12:40:37 p.m. ET) [primary]
- [unknown] The play-money market data do not establish a change in legal merits, guilt, criminal responsibility, or the eventual verdict.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260821-evening-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Low participation and mixed activity make this a thin user-driven sentiment snapshot, not a consensus measure or jury poll.
  - Source: Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children? — https://manifold.markets/Marian/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-of (Market panel, participation, and resolution criteria) [market]
  - Source: About Manifold: play-money markets and Mana — https://manifold.markets/about (Platform explanation of Mana and play-money markets) [official]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:manifold-20260821-evening-supersedes-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260821-1902, lc:markets:claim:manifold-change-20260821-afternoon, lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260821-evening-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Manifold snapshot · August 21 noon — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/227. The evening snapshot replaces the noon Manifold reading after material play-money activity and one additional bettor changed the display.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-manifold-20260821-evening
  - Published: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260821-1902, lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260821-evening-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's standing market-interpretation limits qualify this low-participation play-money snapshot as sentiment rather than evidence.
Links:
- https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR
- https://manifold.markets/Marian/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-of
- https://manifold.markets/about

Attachments:
- No approved attachments on this card.