# Manifold snapshot · August 21 noon Topic: Unresolved Questions Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/227 Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/227.md Updated: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them. #### Card #57: Manifold snapshot · August 21 noon - URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/227 - Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/227.md - Topic: Unresolved Questions - Updated: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z - Stable key: lc:markets:card:manifold-snapshot-20260821-noon - Published: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z - Materially updated: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z - Comments: 0 - Recent change: updated at 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z Filed topics: - Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 11) - Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 52) - Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 50) Summary: A filled 50-Mana Yes position moved the small play-money market to about 34.8%; its direction diverged from Polymarket and is not evidence. Body: [VERIFIED FACT] At 12:01 p.m. Eastern, the unresolved Manifold market displayed about 34.75%, 2,236.43 Mana total volume, 1,177.98 Mana in 24-hour volume, 11 unique bettors, and 59 activity records. A 50-Mana Yes position moved it about 4.60 points above the prior evening. [UNKNOWN] The opposite direction from Polymarket and unchanged bettor count underscore that these thin user-driven markets are not evidence or reliable forecasts. Structured claims: - [verified_fact] At 12:01:28.738 p.m. Eastern on August 21, 2026, the unresolved Manifold market reported probability 0.3475054143, 2,236.4346696309026 Mana total volume, 1,177.9827025080308 Mana 24-hour volume, 11 unique bettors, and 59 API activity records. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260821-1201 - Created: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z - Updated: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z - Evidence/inference boundary: Activity-record counts are not equivalent to unique bettors or completed trades, although the four post-evening records reviewed here were filled and not cancelled. - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Probability, volume, participation, unresolved status, and last-activity fields at 12:01:28.738 p.m. ET) [primary] - Source: Manifold official API bet records for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=ytIdLCSgAR&limit=1000 (59 returned activity records at the stated snapshot) [primary] - [verified_fact] Since the August 20 evening snapshot, the displayed probability rose about 4.6008 percentage points and total volume rose 82 Mana; a filled 50-Mana Yes position at 1:40:02.660 a.m. produced the lasting move, while three smaller records briefly moved and returned the display. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-change-since-20260820-evening - Created: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z - Updated: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z - Evidence/inference boundary: This identifies the public market mechanism, not the participant's reason and not any change in courtroom evidence. - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Current fields compared with the archived August 20 evening snapshot) [primary] - Source: Manifold official API bet records for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=ytIdLCSgAR&limit=1000 (Four filled post-evening records through 1:40:03.186 a.m. ET, including the 50-Mana Yes record) [primary] - [unknown] The public market data do not reveal why participants traded and do not establish any change in legal merits, guilt, criminal responsibility, or the eventual verdict. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260821-noon-not-evidence - Created: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z - Updated: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z - Evidence/inference boundary: Manifold uses play money; divergence from Polymarket and unchanged participation illustrate why neither is a consensus measure or jury poll. - Source: Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children? — https://manifold.markets/Marian/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-of (Market panel, participation display, and resolution criteria) [market] - Source: About Manifold: play-money markets and Mana — https://manifold.markets/about (Platform explanation of Mana and play-money markets) [official] Evidence relationships: - Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:manifold-20260821-noon-supersedes-evening - Published: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260821-1201, lc:markets:claim:manifold-change-since-20260820-evening, lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260821-noon-not-evidence - SUPERSEDES: Manifold snapshot · August 20 evening — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/222. The August 21 snapshot replaces the prior evening reading after a filled 50-Mana Yes position changed the displayed probability and volume. - Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-manifold-20260821-noon - Published: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260821-1201, lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260821-noon-not-evidence - QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's market-interpretation limits qualify the Manifold snapshot as play-money sentiment rather than evidence. - Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:manifold-20260821-evening-supersedes-noon - Published: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260821-1902, lc:markets:claim:manifold-change-20260821-afternoon, lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260821-evening-not-evidence - SUPERSEDES: Manifold snapshot · August 21 evening — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/231. The evening snapshot replaces the noon Manifold reading after material play-money activity and one additional bettor changed the display. Links: - https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR - https://manifold.markets/Marian/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-of - https://manifold.markets/about Attachments: - No approved attachments on this card.