# Polymarket snapshot · August 21 noon

Topic: Unresolved Questions
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/226
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/226.md
Updated: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #56: Polymarket snapshot · August 21 noon

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/226
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/226.md
- Topic: Unresolved Questions
- Updated: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:polymarket-snapshot-20260821-noon
- Published: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z
- Comments: 0
- Recent change: updated at 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 10)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 51)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 49)

Summary:

The small contract moved to 61.5% Yes after three overnight trades; this is trader sentiment, not courtroom evidence or a jury poll.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:01 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved Polymarket contract displayed 61.5% Yes, 38.5% No, a 62-cent last trade, 61-cent bid, 62-cent ask, $1,148.56 total volume, and about $647.97 liquidity. Three overnight trades added $184.69 of volume. [SPECULATION] The contract remains a small market sentiment snapshot, not evidence, adjudication, jury polling, or a dependable verdict probability.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 12:01:28.738 p.m. Eastern on August 21, 2026, Polymarket market 3709100 was active and unresolved with displayed Yes/No prices of 0.615/0.385, last trade 0.62, best bid 0.61, best ask 0.62, spread 0.01, $1,148.556466 total volume, $184.685969 24-hour volume, and $647.9719 liquidity.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260821-1201
  - Created: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Displayed outcome price, last trade, spread, volume, and liquidity are distinct fields; none measures jury sentiment.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Market status, prices, order book, volume, and liquidity fields at 12:01:28.738 p.m. ET) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Compared with the August 20 evening check, displayed Yes fell three percentage points and total volume rose by $184.685969; three post-evening trades occurred between 12:15:51 and 12:17:06 a.m. Eastern.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-since-20260820-evening
  - Created: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: A handful of trades in a small market does not establish consensus or a change in case evidence.
  - Source: Polymarket official trade records · Lindsay Clancy market — https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x4769e6eb48b0e587abc7972c12c0b70f513b4f973f2b9fd30e3040d13f9b67c2&limit=100 (Three post-evening trade records dated August 21, 12:15:51–12:17:06 a.m. ET) [primary]
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Current fields compared with the archived August 20 evening check) [primary]
- [speculation] The 61.5% display is a small prediction market's sentiment snapshot, not evidence, sworn testimony, an adjudication, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict forecast.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260821-noon-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Read the price only beside its volume, liquidity, spread, deadline, and murder-only resolution criteria.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Market size, price, order-book, liquidity, and resolution fields) [primary]
  - Source: Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? — https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder (Public question and resolution rules) [market]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:polymarket-20260821-noon-supersedes-20260820-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260821-1201, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-since-20260820-evening, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260821-noon-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Polymarket snapshot · August 20 noon — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/219. The August 21 snapshot replaces the prior published Polymarket snapshot after new overnight trades changed price and volume.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-polymarket-20260821-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-21T16:10:37.553Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260821-1201, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260821-noon-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's market-interpretation limits qualify this small Polymarket snapshot as sentiment rather than evidence.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:polymarket-20260821-evening-supersedes-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260821-1902, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-20260821-afternoon, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260821-evening-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Polymarket snapshot · August 21 evening — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/230. The evening snapshot replaces the noon reading after seven fills materially changed volume and the displayed midpoint while the last trade and wide book told different stories.
Links:
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

Attachments:
- No approved attachments on this card.