# Manifold snapshot · August 20 noon Topic: Unresolved Questions Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/220 Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/220.md Updated: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them. #### Card #50: Manifold snapshot · August 20 noon - URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/220 - Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/220.md - Topic: Unresolved Questions - Updated: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z - Stable key: lc:markets:card:manifold-snapshot-20260820-noon - Published: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z - Materially updated: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z - Comments: 0 - Recent change: updated at 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z Filed topics: - Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 8) - Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 45) - Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 43) Summary: The play-money market moved to about 57.1% with additional Mana and participants; it remains sentiment data, not courtroom evidence. Body: [VERIFIED FACT] At 12:03 p.m. Eastern, the unresolved Manifold market displayed about 57.06%, 1,622.43 Mana total volume, 645.98 Mana in 24-hour volume, 11 unique bettors, and 51 API bet records. Since the prior archived snapshot it rose about eight percentage points with three more bettors. Records can include cancelled or zero-value entries and are not all completed trades. [UNKNOWN] The market cannot establish evidence, guilt, criminal responsibility, or the verdict. Structured claims: - [verified_fact] At 12:03:14 p.m. Eastern on August 20, 2026, the unresolved Manifold market reported probability 0.5706024818, 1,622.4346696309021 Mana total volume, 645.9827025080307 Mana 24-hour volume, 11 unique bettors, and 51 API bet records; the latest activity was 11:46:10.696 a.m. Eastern. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260820-1203 - Created: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z - Updated: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z - Evidence/inference boundary: API records can include cancelled or zero-value entries and therefore are not equivalent to 51 completed trades. - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (probability, volume, volume24Hours, uniqueBettorCount, isResolved, and last activity fields at 12:03:14 p.m. ET) [primary] - Source: Manifold official API bet records for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=ytIdLCSgAR&limit=1000 (51 returned activity records inspected at the stated snapshot) [primary] - [verified_fact] Compared with the archived August 16 evening snapshot after its last one-Mana activity, the displayed probability rose by about 7.9981 percentage points, total volume increased by 645.9827025 Mana, the unique-bettor count increased by three, and the API returned 12 additional records. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-change-since-20260816-evening - Created: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z - Updated: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z - Evidence/inference boundary: This describes a small play-money market's fields and participation, not a legal development or new evidence. - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Current fields compared with the archive's cited August 16/August 18 post-activity snapshot) [primary] - Source: Manifold official API bet records for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=ytIdLCSgAR&limit=1000 (Current record count compared with the archived 39-record snapshot) [primary] - [unknown] The public market data do not reveal why traders changed positions and do not establish any change in the legal merits, guilt, criminal responsibility, or eventual verdict. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260820-noon-not-evidence - Created: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z - Updated: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z - Evidence/inference boundary: This is a user-created play-money sentiment market whose criteria bundle legal outcomes; a price move is not court evidence. - Source: Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children? — https://manifold.markets/Marian/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-of (Market panel, participation display, and resolution criteria) [market] - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Probability, volume, participation, and unresolved-status fields) [primary] - Source: About Manifold: play-money markets and Mana — https://manifold.markets/about (Platform explanation of Mana and play-money markets) [official] Evidence relationships: - Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:manifold-20260820-noon-supersedes-20260816 - Published: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260820-1203, lc:markets:claim:manifold-change-since-20260816-evening, lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260820-noon-not-evidence - SUPERSEDES: Manifold market moved to 49% — August 16 evening snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/191. The August 20 snapshot replaces the prior dated Manifold reading after material probability, volume, activity-record, and participation changes. - Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-manifold-20260820-noon - Published: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260820-1203, lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260820-noon-not-evidence - QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's market-interpretation limits qualify the Manifold snapshot as play-money sentiment rather than evidence. - Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:manifold-20260820-evening-supersedes-noon - Published: 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260820-1903, lc:markets:claim:manifold-change-since-20260820-noon, lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260820-evening-not-evidence - SUPERSEDES: Manifold snapshot · August 20 evening — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/222. The evening snapshot replaces the noon reading after a filled 500-Mana No position materially changed the displayed probability and volume. Links: - https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR - https://manifold.markets/Marian/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-of - https://manifold.markets/about Attachments: - No approved attachments on this card.