# Polymarket snapshot · August 20 noon

Topic: Unresolved Questions
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/219
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/219.md
Updated: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #49: Polymarket snapshot · August 20 noon

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/219
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions/card/219.md
- Topic: Unresolved Questions
- Updated: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:polymarket-snapshot-20260820-noon
- Published: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z
- Comments: 0
- Recent change: new at 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 7)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 44)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 42)

Summary:

The contract displayed 65.5% Yes with more volume and liquidity and a tighter spread; this remains small-market sentiment, not evidence.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:02 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved Polymarket contract displayed 65.5% Yes and 34.5% No, a 63-cent last trade, 65-cent bid, 66-cent ask, $963.87 total volume, and about $462.02 liquidity. Since the prior evening, Yes fell 4.5 points while volume and liquidity rose and the spread narrowed from ten cents to one cent. [SPECULATION] This is a small prediction market's sentiment snapshot—not evidence, testimony, a jury poll, or a reliable estimate of the result.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 12:02:45 p.m. Eastern on August 20, 2026, Polymarket market 3709100 was active and unresolved with displayed Yes/No prices of 0.655/0.345, a last trade of 0.63, best bid 0.65, best ask 0.66, a 0.01 spread, $963.870497 total volume, $382.548037 24-hour volume, and $462.0161 liquidity.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260820-1202
  - Created: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The displayed outcome price, last trade, and order-book spread are different fields; none measures jury sentiment.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (active, closed, acceptingOrders, outcomePrices, lastTradePrice, bestBid, bestAsk, spread, volume, volume24hr, and liquidity fields at 12:02:45 p.m. ET) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Compared with the archived August 19 evening snapshot, displayed Yes fell from 70% to 65.5%, total volume increased by $241.73, liquidity increased by $147.1608, and the displayed spread narrowed from 0.10 to 0.01.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-since-20260819-evening
  - Created: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: These are contract-field changes, not changes in case evidence or a measure of what jurors think.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Current fields at 12:02:45 p.m. ET compared with the archive's cited August 19 7:02:27 p.m. snapshot) [primary]
- [speculation] The 65.5% display is a small prediction market's sentiment snapshot, not evidence, sworn testimony, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict forecast.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260820-noon-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Read the price only with volume, liquidity, spread, deadline, and murder-only resolution criteria displayed beside it.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Market size, price, order-book, liquidity, and resolution fields at the stated snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? — https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder (Public question and resolution rules) [market]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:polymarket-20260820-noon-supersedes-evening
  - Published: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260820-1202, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-since-20260819-evening, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260820-noon-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Polymarket snapshot · August 19 evening — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/216. The August 20 noon snapshot updates the prior evening display after material price, volume, liquidity, and spread changes while retaining the same evidentiary limits.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-polymarket-20260820-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260820-1202, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260820-noon-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's market-interpretation limits qualify this snapshot: price movement remains sentiment rather than evidence.
Links:
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

Attachments:
- No approved attachments on this card.