# Prediction markets · sixth deliberation-day evening snapshot

Topic: Trial-Day Developments
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/278
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/278.md
Updated: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #99: Prediction markets · sixth deliberation-day evening snapshot

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/278
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/278.md
- Topic: Trial-Day Developments
- Updated: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:sixth-deliberation-day-evening-snapshot-20260903
- Published: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z
- Materially updated: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z
- Comments: 0

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 29)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 96)
- Cross-filed: Trial-Day Developments — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments (sort 87)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 101)

Summary:

Polymarket displayed 6.5% and Manifold 46.57%; both fell after the juror dispute and no-verdict adjournment, but their 40.07-point gap remains platform sentiment rather than evidence.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:03:20 p.m. Eastern on September 3, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 6.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 46.57%. Since the noon capture, Polymarket fell 9.0 percentage points while reported total volume rose about $44,369.31; Manifold fell about 4.92 points while reported total volume rose about 361.23 Mana. The absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 35.99 points to about 40.07 points. [SPECULATION] These figures are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The APIs do not establish why participants traded or whether the moves were caused by the foreperson note, the juror-removal dispute, the no-verdict adjournment, media coverage, or other factors.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 7:03:20 p.m. Eastern on September 3, active unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed Yes/No 0.065/0.935, last-trade field 0.07, best Yes bid 0.06, ask 0.07, reported total volume $232,399.845688, rolling 24-hour volume $61,979.902206, and liquidity $42,685.0868.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-polymarket-20260903-1903
  - Created: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The platform fields are a timestamped market record and do not reveal jury discussions, the foreperson note, or a legal result.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official Gamma API fields updated at 6:58:14.898 p.m. ET and captured at 7:03:20 p.m.) [primary]
- [verified_fact] At the same archive capture, unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed probability 0.4656646718, 7,483.143996 Mana total volume, 698.113778 Mana rolling 24-hour volume, and 25 unique bettors; its most recent recorded update was 6:23:00 p.m. Eastern.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-manifold-20260903-1903
  - Created: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Manifold uses play-money Mana and different mechanics and participation; its displayed probability is not court evidence or a calibrated jury forecast.
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official market API fields captured at 7:03:20 p.m. ET; lastUpdatedTime 1788474180240) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Compared with the archived September 3 12:06:34 p.m. snapshots, Polymarket’s Yes display fell 9.0 percentage points and total volume rose about $44,369.31, while Manifold’s probability fell about 4.92 points and total volume rose about 361.23 Mana; the absolute platform gap widened from about 35.99 points to about 40.07 points.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-evening-change-20260903
  - Created: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The arithmetic establishes platform movement, not its cause; it does not authenticate deliberation information or indicate a likely verdict.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Current official fields compared with the archive’s September 3 12:06:34 p.m. API capture) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Current official fields compared with the archive’s September 3 12:06:34 p.m. API capture) [primary]
- [speculation] The 6.5% and 46.57% platform displays are sentiment records, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-evening-markets-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The prices support no inference about guilt, criminal responsibility, juror misconduct, staging, or participation by Patrick Clancy, Rachel Danis, or any third party.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official unresolved Polymarket snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official unresolved Manifold snapshot) [primary]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:sixth-deliberation-evening-supersedes-noon
  - Published: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-polymarket-20260903-1903, lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-manifold-20260903-1903, lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-evening-change-20260903, lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-evening-markets-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · sixth deliberation-day noon snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/276. The September 3 evening capture replaces the noon snapshot after both displays fell and reported volume increased, while preserving the distinction between sentiment and evidence.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:standing-limits-qualify-sixth-deliberation-evening
  - Published: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-evening-markets-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive’s standing market-method limits require interpreting current platform displays as sentiment rather than evidence, adjudication, authenticated jury information, or a dependable forecast.
Links:
- https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-o
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

Attachments:
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