# Prediction markets · sixth deliberation-day noon snapshot

Topic: Trial-Day Developments
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/276
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/276.md
Updated: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #98: Prediction markets · sixth deliberation-day noon snapshot

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/276
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/276.md
- Topic: Trial-Day Developments
- Updated: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:sixth-deliberation-day-noon-snapshot-20260903
- Published: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z
- Materially updated: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z
- Comments: 0

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 28)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 94)
- Cross-filed: Trial-Day Developments — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments (sort 85)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 99)

Summary:

Polymarket displayed 15.5% and Manifold 51.49%; both fell from the prior noon, while their 35.99-point divergence remained platform sentiment rather than evidence or jury information.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:06:34 p.m. Eastern on September 3, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 15.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 51.49%. Since the September 2 noon capture, Polymarket fell 4.5 percentage points while reported total volume rose about $33,359.54; Manifold fell about 3.98 points while reported total volume rose about 574.88 Mana. The absolute cross-platform gap widened slightly from about 35.47 points to about 35.99 points. [SPECULATION] These figures are platform sentiment, not evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public APIs do not establish why participants traded or whether the moves were caused by the second impasse, the Tuey-Rodriguez charge, the sixth deliberation day, media coverage, or other factors.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 12:06:34 p.m. Eastern on September 3, active unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed Yes/No 0.155/0.845, last-trade field 0.16, best Yes bid 0.15, ask 0.16, reported total volume $188,030.530942, rolling 24-hour volume $33,359.540207, and liquidity $20,221.8302.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-polymarket-20260903-1206
  - Created: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Outcome price, last trade, order book, volume, and liquidity are distinct platform fields; none reveals jury discussions or a legal outcome.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official Gamma API fields updated at 12:04:11.491 p.m. ET September 3, 2026 and captured at 12:06:34 p.m.) [primary]
- [verified_fact] At the same archive capture, unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed probability 0.5148745905, 7,121.915076 Mana total volume, 574.884859 Mana rolling 24-hour volume, and 24 unique bettors; its most recent recorded update was 2:19:55 a.m. Eastern.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-manifold-20260903-1206
  - Created: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Manifold uses play-money Mana and has different mechanics and participation from Polymarket; its displayed probability is not court evidence or a calibrated jury forecast.
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official market API fields captured at 12:06:34 p.m. ET; lastUpdatedTime 1788416395422) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Compared with the archived September 2 12:00:35 p.m. snapshots, Polymarket’s Yes display fell 4.5 percentage points and total volume rose about $33,359.54, while Manifold’s probability fell about 3.98 points and total volume rose about 574.88 Mana; the absolute platform gap widened from about 35.47 points to about 35.99 points.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-noon-change-20260903
  - Created: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The arithmetic establishes platform movement, not its cause. The APIs do not connect the movement to a court event, media report, or participant information source.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Current official fields compared with the archive’s September 2 12:00:35 p.m. official API capture) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Current official fields compared with the archive’s September 2 12:00:35 p.m. official API capture) [primary]
- [speculation] The 15.5% and 51.49% platform displays are sentiment records, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The prices support no inference about guilt, criminal responsibility, staging, juror influence, or participation by Patrick Clancy, Rachel Danis, or any third party.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official unresolved Polymarket snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official unresolved Manifold snapshot) [primary]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:sixth-deliberation-noon-supersedes-prior-noon
  - Published: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-polymarket-20260903-1206, lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-manifold-20260903-1206, lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-noon-change-20260903, lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · fifth deliberation-day noon snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/273. The September 3 noon capture replaces the prior noon snapshot after both displayed probabilities fell and reported volume increased, while retaining the distinction between sentiment and evidence.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:standing-limits-qualify-sixth-deliberation-noon
  - Published: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive’s standing market-method limits require interpreting current platform displays as sentiment rather than evidence, adjudication, authenticated jury information, or a dependable forecast.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:sixth-deliberation-evening-supersedes-noon
  - Published: 2026-09-03T23:08:09.489Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-polymarket-20260903-1903, lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-manifold-20260903-1903, lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-evening-change-20260903, lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-evening-markets-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · sixth deliberation-day evening snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/278. The September 3 evening capture replaces the noon snapshot after both displays fell and reported volume increased, while preserving the distinction between sentiment and evidence.
Links:
- https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-o
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

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