# Prediction markets · fifth deliberation-day noon snapshot

Topic: Trial-Day Developments
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/273
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/273.md
Updated: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #97: Prediction markets · fifth deliberation-day noon snapshot

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/273
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/273.md
- Topic: Trial-Day Developments
- Updated: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:fifth-deliberation-day-noon-snapshot-20260902
- Published: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z
- Materially updated: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z
- Comments: 0

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 27)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 91)
- Cross-filed: Trial-Day Developments — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments (sort 82)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 96)

Summary:

Polymarket displayed 20.0% and Manifold 55.47%; both rose from the prior evening, but their 35.47-point divergence remains platform sentiment rather than evidence or jury information.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:00:35 p.m. Eastern on September 2, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 20.0% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 55.47%. Since the September 1 evening capture, Polymarket rose 3.5 percentage points while reported total volume rose about $5,997.41; Manifold rose about 12.78 points while reported total volume rose about 439.56 Mana. The absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 26.19 points to about 35.47 points. [SPECULATION] These figures are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public APIs do not establish why participants traded or whether the moves were caused by the fifth deliberation day, the juror inquiry, general coverage, or other factors.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 12:00:35 p.m. Eastern on September 2, active unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed Yes/No 0.20/0.80, last-trade field 0.20, best Yes bid 0.19, ask 0.21, reported total volume $154,670.990735, rolling 24-hour volume $23,101.494296, and liquidity $9,860.1663.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:fifth-deliberation-polymarket-20260902-1200
  - Created: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The displayed outcome price, last trade, order book, volume, and liquidity are distinct platform fields; none reveals jury discussions or a legal outcome.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official Gamma API fields updated at 12:00:34.743 p.m. ET September 2, 2026) [primary]
- [verified_fact] At the same archive capture, unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed probability 0.5547050656, 6,547.030218 Mana total volume, 642.254968 Mana rolling 24-hour volume, and 22 unique bettors; its most recent recorded update was 9:28:57 a.m. Eastern.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:fifth-deliberation-manifold-20260902-1200
  - Created: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Manifold uses play-money Mana and has different mechanics and participation from Polymarket; its displayed probability is not court evidence or a calibrated jury forecast.
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official market API fields captured at 12:00:35 p.m. ET; lastUpdatedTime 1788355737416) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Compared with the archived September 1 7:03:26 p.m. snapshots, Polymarket’s Yes display rose 3.5 percentage points and total volume rose about $5,997.41, while Manifold’s probability rose about 12.78 points and total volume rose about 439.56 Mana; the absolute platform gap widened from about 26.19 points to about 35.47 points.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:fifth-deliberation-noon-change-20260902
  - Created: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The arithmetic establishes platform movement, not its cause. The APIs do not show whether the movement followed any specific court development or media coverage.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Current official fields compared with the archive’s September 1 7:03:26 p.m. official API capture) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Current official fields compared with the archive’s September 1 7:03:26 p.m. official API capture) [primary]
- [speculation] The 20.0% and 55.47% platform displays are sentiment records, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:fifth-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: No public source establishes traders’ motives, and the movements support no inference about guilt, criminal responsibility, staging, juror influence, or third-party involvement.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official unresolved Polymarket snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official unresolved Manifold snapshot) [primary]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:fifth-deliberation-noon-supersedes-prior-evening
  - Published: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:fifth-deliberation-polymarket-20260902-1200, lc:markets:claim:fifth-deliberation-manifold-20260902-1200, lc:markets:claim:fifth-deliberation-noon-change-20260902, lc:markets:claim:fifth-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · fourth deliberation-day evening snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/271. The September 2 noon capture replaces the September 1 evening snapshot after material movement on both platforms, while preserving the distinction between platform sentiment and court evidence.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:standing-limits-qualify-fifth-deliberation-noon
  - Published: 2026-09-02T16:12:12.021Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:fifth-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive’s standing market-method limits require interpreting the current platform displays as sentiment rather than evidence, adjudication, authenticated jury information, or a dependable forecast.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:sixth-deliberation-noon-supersedes-prior-noon
  - Published: 2026-09-03T16:11:02.711Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-polymarket-20260903-1206, lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-manifold-20260903-1206, lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-noon-change-20260903, lc:markets:claim:sixth-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · sixth deliberation-day noon snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/276. The September 3 noon capture replaces the prior noon snapshot after both displayed probabilities fell and reported volume increased, while retaining the distinction between sentiment and evidence.
Links:
- https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-o
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

Attachments:
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