# Prediction markets · third deliberation-day evening snapshot

Topic: Trial-Day Developments
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/267
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/267.md
Updated: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #94: Prediction markets · third deliberation-day evening snapshot

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/267
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/267.md
- Topic: Trial-Day Developments
- Updated: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:third-deliberation-day-evening-snapshot-20260831
- Published: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z
- Comments: 0

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 24)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 85)
- Cross-filed: Trial-Day Developments — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments (sort 76)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 90)

Summary:

After the jury adjourned without a verdict, Polymarket displayed 29.5% and Manifold remained at 51.82%; the 22.32-point divergence is platform sentiment, not evidence or jury information.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:04:44 p.m. Eastern on August 31, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 29.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 51.82%. Since the noon archive capture, Polymarket fell 6.0 percentage points while reported total volume rose by about $7,755.02; Manifold's displayed probability and reported volume were unchanged. The absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 16.32 points to about 22.32 points. [SPECULATION] The divergent percentages and moves are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public platform records do not establish why participants traded or whether activity followed the no-verdict adjournment or other public coverage.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 7:04:44 p.m. Eastern on August 31, active unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed Yes/No 0.295/0.705, last-trade field 0.30, best Yes bid 0.29, ask 0.30, reported total volume $100,404.893335, rolling 24-hour volume $17,758.287, and liquidity $16,633.579.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-polymarket-20260831-1904
  - Created: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The displayed outcome price, last trade, order book, volume, and liquidity are distinct platform fields; none reveals jury discussions or a legal outcome.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official Gamma API fields captured at 7:04:44 p.m. ET August 31, 2026) [primary]
- [verified_fact] At the same capture time, unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed probability 0.5182124269, 5,773.775250 Mana total volume, 621.930224 Mana rolling 24-hour volume, and 20 unique bettors.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-manifold-20260831-1904
  - Created: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Manifold uses play-money Mana and has different mechanics and participation from Polymarket; its displayed probability is not court evidence or a calibrated jury forecast.
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official market API fields captured at 7:04:44 p.m. ET August 31, 2026) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Compared with the archived August 31 12:04:40 p.m. snapshots, Polymarket's Yes display fell 6.0 percentage points and total volume rose about $7,755.02, while Manifold's displayed probability and reported volume were unchanged; the absolute platform gap widened from about 16.32 points to about 22.32 points.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-evening-divergence-20260831
  - Created: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The arithmetic establishes platform movement, not its cause. Divergent market prices do not establish guilt, criminal responsibility, a jury leaning, or any private deliberation information.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Current official fields compared with the archive's August 31 12:04:40 p.m. official API capture) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Current official fields compared with the archive's August 31 12:04:40 p.m. official API capture) [primary]
- [speculation] The 29.5% and 51.82% platform displays are sentiment records, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-evening-markets-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: No public source establishes traders' motives, and the movements support no inference about guilt, criminal responsibility, staging, or third-party involvement.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official unresolved Polymarket snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official unresolved Manifold snapshot) [primary]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:third-deliberation-evening-supersedes-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-polymarket-20260831-1904, lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-manifold-20260831-1904, lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-evening-divergence-20260831, lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-evening-markets-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · third deliberation-day noon snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/265. The evening capture replaces the noon snapshot after a six-point Polymarket move and wider cross-platform divergence, while preserving the distinction between platform sentiment and court evidence.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:standing-limits-qualify-third-deliberation-evening
  - Published: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-evening-markets-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's standing market-method limits require interpreting the evening platform displays as sentiment rather than evidence, adjudication, or authenticated jury information.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:fourth-deliberation-noon-supersedes-prior-evening
  - Published: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-polymarket-20260901-1204, lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-manifold-20260901-1204, lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-noon-divergence-20260901, lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · fourth deliberation-day noon snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/269. The September 1 noon capture replaces the August 31 evening snapshot after material movement on both platforms, while preserving the distinction between platform sentiment and court evidence.
Links:
- https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-o
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

Attachments:
- No approved attachments on this card.