# Prediction markets · third deliberation-day noon snapshot

Topic: Trial-Day Developments
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/265
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/265.md
Updated: 2026-08-31T16:10:08.020Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #93: Prediction markets · third deliberation-day noon snapshot

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/265
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/265.md
- Topic: Trial-Day Developments
- Updated: 2026-08-31T16:10:08.020Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:third-deliberation-day-noon-snapshot-20260831
- Published: 2026-08-31T16:10:08.020Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-31T16:10:08.020Z
- Comments: 0

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 23)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 83)
- Cross-filed: Trial-Day Developments — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments (sort 74)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 88)

Summary:

Polymarket displayed 35.5% and Manifold 51.82% after Manifold rose about 13.60 points since Sunday evening; the divergence is platform sentiment, not evidence or jury information.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:04:40 p.m. Eastern on August 31, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 35.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 51.82%. Since the Sunday-evening archive capture, Polymarket rose 2.0 percentage points and Manifold rose about 13.60 points; the absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 4.72 points to about 16.32 points. Polymarket reported $92,649.87 total volume and Manifold reported 5,773.78 Mana total volume. [SPECULATION] The divergent percentages and moves are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public platform records do not establish why participants traded or whether activity followed public trial coverage.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 12:04:40 p.m. Eastern on August 31, active unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed Yes/No 0.355/0.645, last-trade field 0.31, best Yes bid 0.32, ask 0.39, reported total volume $92,649.869854, rolling 24-hour volume $11,412.050673, and liquidity $5,566.6955.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-polymarket-20260831-1204
  - Created: 2026-08-31T16:10:08.020Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-31T16:10:08.020Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The displayed outcome price, last trade, order book, volume, and liquidity are distinct platform fields; none reveals jury discussions or a legal outcome.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official Gamma API fields captured at 12:04:40 p.m. ET August 31, 2026) [primary]
- [verified_fact] At the same capture time, unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed probability 0.5182124269, 5,773.775250 Mana total volume, 621.930224 Mana rolling 24-hour volume, and 20 unique bettors.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-manifold-20260831-1204
  - Created: 2026-08-31T16:10:08.020Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-31T16:10:08.020Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Manifold uses play-money Mana and has different mechanics and participation from Polymarket; its displayed probability is not court evidence or a calibrated jury forecast.
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official market API fields captured at 12:04:40 p.m. ET August 31, 2026) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Compared with the archived August 30 7:02:09 p.m. snapshots, Polymarket's Yes display rose 2.0 percentage points and total volume rose about $10,017.97, while Manifold's probability rose about 13.5975 points and total volume rose about 621.93 Mana; the absolute platform gap widened from about 4.72 points to about 16.32 points.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-divergence-20260831-noon
  - Created: 2026-08-31T16:10:08.020Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-31T16:10:08.020Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The arithmetic establishes platform movement, not its cause. Divergent market prices do not establish guilt, criminal responsibility, a jury leaning, or any private deliberation information.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Current official fields compared with the archive's August 30 7:02:09 p.m. official API capture) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Current official fields compared with the archive's August 30 7:02:09 p.m. official API capture) [primary]
- [speculation] The 35.5% and 51.82% platform displays are sentiment records, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-08-31T16:10:08.020Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-31T16:10:08.020Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: No public source establishes traders' motives, and the movements support no inference about guilt, criminal responsibility, staging, or third-party involvement.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official unresolved Polymarket snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official unresolved Manifold snapshot) [primary]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:third-deliberation-noon-supersedes-weekend
  - Published: 2026-08-31T16:10:08.020Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-polymarket-20260831-1204, lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-manifold-20260831-1204, lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-divergence-20260831-noon, lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · weekend convergence snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/263. The Monday-noon capture replaces the weekend snapshot after material Manifold movement and renewed divergence, while preserving the distinction between platform sentiment and court evidence.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:standing-limits-qualify-third-deliberation-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-31T16:10:08.020Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's standing market-method limits require interpreting the current platform displays as sentiment rather than evidence, adjudication, or authenticated jury information.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:third-deliberation-evening-supersedes-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-31T23:09:11.884Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-polymarket-20260831-1904, lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-manifold-20260831-1904, lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-evening-divergence-20260831, lc:markets:claim:third-deliberation-evening-markets-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · third deliberation-day evening snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/267. The evening capture replaces the noon snapshot after a six-point Polymarket move and wider cross-platform divergence, while preserving the distinction between platform sentiment and court evidence.
Links:
- https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-o
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

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