# Prediction markets · second deliberation-day evening snapshot

Topic: Trial-Day Developments
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/261
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/261.md
Updated: 2026-08-28T23:08:44.570Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #90: Prediction markets · second deliberation-day evening snapshot

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/261
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments/card/261.md
- Topic: Trial-Day Developments
- Updated: 2026-08-28T23:08:44.570Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:second-deliberation-day-evening-snapshot-20260828
- Published: 2026-08-28T23:08:44.570Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-28T23:08:44.570Z
- Comments: 0

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 21)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 79)
- Cross-filed: Trial-Day Developments — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments (sort 70)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 84)

Summary:

Both unresolved platforms moved lower after the jury adjourned for the weekend, while retaining a roughly 29-point cross-platform gap—further reason to treat them as sentiment, never evidence.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:02:48 p.m. ET, Polymarket displayed 29.5% Yes and 70.5% No, a 30-cent last-trade field, a 29/30-cent Yes book, $56,418.22 reported total volume, and $25,336.79 liquidity. The Yes display was 7.5 points below the noon archive capture. Manifold displayed 58.85% with $4,155.90 total volume, approximately 8.45 points below its noon capture. [SPECULATION] The unresolved platforms still differed by approximately 29.35 points. Neither movement nor divergence is evidence, an authenticated deliberation leak, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability. [UNKNOWN] No public information establishes why traders moved either market.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 7:02:48 p.m. Eastern on August 28, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed Yes/No 0.295/0.705, last-trade field 0.30, best Yes bid 0.29, ask 0.30, reported total volume $56,418.220881, and liquidity $25,336.7938.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-polymarket-20260828-1902
  - Created: 2026-08-28T23:08:44.570Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-28T23:08:44.570Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The Yes display was 7.5 points below the noon archive capture; price, last trade, book, volume, and liquidity are distinct fields and none reveals jury information.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official Gamma API fields captured at 7:02:48 p.m. ET) [primary]
- [verified_fact] At the same capture time, unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed probability 0.5885249267 with reported total volume $4,155.904742, approximately 8.45 points below the noon archive capture.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-manifold-20260828-1902
  - Created: 2026-08-28T23:08:44.570Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-28T23:08:44.570Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Manifold and Polymarket have different participation, mechanics, and resolution processes; their displays are not directly calibrated or equivalent odds.
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official market API fields captured at 7:02:48 p.m. ET) [primary]
- [speculation] The roughly 29.35-point cross-platform gap and same-day price movement are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or a dependable verdict forecast.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-evening-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-08-28T23:08:44.570Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-28T23:08:44.570Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: No public source establishes why traders moved the markets; the snapshot supports no inference about guilt, criminal responsibility, staging, or third-party involvement.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official unresolved Polymarket snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official unresolved Manifold snapshot) [primary]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:second-deliberation-evening-supersedes-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-28T23:08:44.570Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-polymarket-20260828-1902, lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-manifold-20260828-1902, lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-evening-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · second deliberation-day noon snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/258. The evening capture replaces the noon market snapshot with current unresolved figures after the jury adjourned for the weekend while preserving the sentiment-versus-evidence boundary.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:standing-limits-qualify-second-deliberation-evening
  - Published: 2026-08-28T23:08:44.570Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:second-deliberation-evening-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's standing market-method limits require interpreting the updated platform displays as sentiment rather than evidence, adjudication, or an authenticated jury signal.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:weekend-convergence-supersedes-aug28-evening
  - Published: 2026-08-29T23:09:23.000Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:weekend-polymarket-20260829-1906, lc:markets:claim:weekend-manifold-20260829-1906, lc:markets:claim:weekend-divergent-moves-convergence-20260829, lc:markets:claim:weekend-convergence-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · weekend convergence snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/263. The weekend capture replaces the prior evening prices and volume fields after material movement on both platforms and corrects the earlier dollar-style formatting of Manifold's play-money Mana volume.
Links:
- https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-o
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

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