# Polymarket snapshot · August 23 evening

Topic: Source Library & Methodology
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology/card/233
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology/card/233.md
Updated: 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #65: Polymarket snapshot · August 23 evening

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology/card/233
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology/card/233.md
- Topic: Source Library & Methodology
- Updated: 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:polymarket-snapshot-20260823-evening
- Published: 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z
- Comments: 0
- Recent change: new at 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 15)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 58)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 56)

Summary:

Five fills added about $876 of volume as displayed Yes fell from 32% to 21% and the spread narrowed to four points; the move remains trader sentiment, not case evidence.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:01 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved contract displayed 21% Yes and 79% No, while its last-trade field was 20 cents and the Yes order book was 19-cent bid/23-cent ask. Five post-noon fills added $875.99 of reported volume. [UNKNOWN] The public records show the trades but do not establish why participants acted. [SPECULATION] Even with a narrower spread and more turnover, this market is not sworn evidence, an adjudication, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 7:01:17.610 p.m. Eastern on August 23, Polymarket market 3709100 was active and unresolved with displayed Yes/No prices 0.21/0.79, last-trade field 0.20, best Yes bid 0.19, best ask 0.23, spread 0.04, $2,820.452328 total volume, $885.823826 rolling 24-hour volume, and $2,158.7652 liquidity.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260823-1901
  - Created: 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Displayed outcome prices, the latest-trade field, and the live order book are non-equivalent measures. The narrower four-point spread improves price coherence but does not turn the market into legal evidence or a representative forecast.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official Gamma market fields captured 7:01:17.610 p.m. ET on August 23, 2026) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Since noon, displayed Yes fell 11 percentage points, the last-trade field fell five cents, the best bid fell six cents, the best ask fell 16 cents, the spread narrowed by 10 cents, and reported total volume rose $875.993826 across five fills.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-20260823-afternoon
  - Created: 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The records establish transaction fields and timing, not traders' motives. No reason for the move should be inferred from the public data.
  - Source: Polymarket official trade records · Lindsay Clancy market — https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x4769e6eb48b0e587abc7972c12c0b70f513b4f973f2b9fd30e3040d13f9b67c2&limit=100 (Five post-noon fills at 1:18:03, 3:09:49, 5:54:48, 5:54:48, and 5:57:16 p.m. ET on August 23, 2026) [primary]
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Evening fields compared with the archived August 23 noon snapshot) [primary]
- [verified_fact] The post-noon records comprised a 613.17-unit No buy at 0.7581543455, an 89.33-unit Yes buy at 0.30, No buys of 145 units at 0.7543103448 and 20.493826 units at 0.8099999971, and an eight-unit Yes sell at 0.20.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-fills-20260823-afternoon
  - Created: 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The mixed outcome directions and five-record sample should not be described as a jury signal, public consensus, or reaction to a particular piece of evidence.
  - Source: Polymarket official trade records · Lindsay Clancy market — https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x4769e6eb48b0e587abc7972c12c0b70f513b4f973f2b9fd30e3040d13f9b67c2&limit=100 (Official trade records between 1:18:03 and 5:57:16 p.m. ET on August 23, 2026) [primary]
- [speculation] The 21% display and 20-cent last-trade field are market sentiment, not sworn testimony, a court finding, an adjudication, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260823-evening-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Interpret the snapshot only beside the five fills, 19/23-cent book, four-point spread, volume, liquidity, deadline, and murder-only resolution rules.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Market price, order-book, volume, liquidity, and unresolved-status fields) [primary]
  - Source: Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? — https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder (Public market question and resolution rules) [market]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:polymarket-20260823-evening-supersedes-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260823-1901, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-20260823-afternoon, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-fills-20260823-afternoon, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260823-evening-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Polymarket snapshot · August 23 noon — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/232. The evening snapshot replaces the noon reading after five fills materially changed displayed prices, volume, liquidity, and the bid-ask spread while providing no evidence about why the market moved.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-polymarket-20260823-evening
  - Published: 2026-08-23T23:06:09.796Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260823-1901, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260823-evening-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's standing market-interpretation limits qualify this small-market snapshot as trader sentiment rather than evidence, adjudication, or a jury signal.
Links:
- https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x4769e6eb48b0e587abc7972c12c0b70f513b4f973f2b9fd30e3040d13f9b67c2&limit=100
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

Attachments:
- No approved attachments on this card.