# Polymarket snapshot · August 21 evening

Topic: Source Library & Methodology
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology/card/230
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology/card/230.md
Updated: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #62: Polymarket snapshot · August 21 evening

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology/card/230
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology/card/230.md
- Topic: Source Library & Methodology
- Updated: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:polymarket-snapshot-20260821-evening
- Published: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
- Comments: 0
- Recent change: new at 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 12)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 55)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 53)

Summary:

The tiny contract's displayed midpoint fell to 37.5%, but its last trade remained 62% and its bid-ask spread widened to 25 points—three different signals, none courtroom evidence.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:02 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved contract displayed 37.5% Yes, while the last trade was 62 cents and the Yes order book was 25-cent bid/50-cent ask. Seven post-noon fills added $784.74 of volume. [SPECULATION] A wide spread and small turnover make any single displayed number especially poor shorthand for consensus; the market is not evidence, adjudication, or a jury poll.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 7:02:17.575 p.m. Eastern on August 21, Polymarket market 3709100 was active and unresolved with displayed Yes/No prices 0.375/0.625, last trade 0.62, best Yes bid 0.25, best ask 0.50, spread 0.25, $1,933.29517 total volume, $969.424673 24-hour volume, and $1,795.8428 liquidity.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260821-1902
  - Created: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The displayed midpoint, last fill, and live order book are non-equivalent measures; the 25-cent spread makes a single 'odds' statement misleading.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official market fields captured 7:02:17.575 p.m. ET) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Since noon, displayed Yes fell 24 percentage points and total volume rose $784.738704 across seven fills between 2:18:06 and 2:47:21 p.m. Eastern, while the last trade remained 0.62 and the spread widened by 24 cents.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-20260821-afternoon
  - Created: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The public records show what traded, not why; the changes do not establish a shift in case evidence or jury opinion.
  - Source: Polymarket official trade records · Lindsay Clancy market — https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x4769e6eb48b0e587abc7972c12c0b70f513b4f973f2b9fd30e3040d13f9b67c2&limit=100 (Seven post-noon fills, 2:18:06–2:47:21 p.m. ET) [primary]
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Evening fields compared with archived August 21 noon snapshot) [primary]
- [speculation] The 37.5% display is thin market sentiment, not sworn evidence, an adjudication, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260821-evening-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Interpret it only beside the 62-cent last trade, 25/50-cent book, volume, liquidity, deadline, and murder-only resolution rules.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Market price, order book, volume, liquidity, and resolution fields) [primary]
  - Source: Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? — https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder (Public question and resolution rules) [market]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:polymarket-20260821-evening-supersedes-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260821-1902, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-20260821-afternoon, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260821-evening-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Polymarket snapshot · August 21 noon — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/226. The evening snapshot replaces the noon reading after seven fills materially changed volume and the displayed midpoint while the last trade and wide book told different stories.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-polymarket-20260821-evening
  - Published: 2026-08-21T23:10:36.219Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260821-1902, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260821-evening-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's standing market-interpretation limits qualify this divergent small-market snapshot as sentiment rather than evidence.
Links:
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

Attachments:
- No approved attachments on this card.