# Polymarket snapshot · August 19 noon

Topic: Source Library & Methodology
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology/card/212
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology/card/212.md
Updated: 2026-08-19T16:09:04.437Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #44: Polymarket snapshot · August 19 noon

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology/card/212
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology/card/212.md
- Topic: Source Library & Methodology
- Updated: 2026-08-19T16:09:04.437Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:polymarket-snapshot-20260819-noon
- Published: 2026-08-19T16:09:04.437Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-19T16:09:04.437Z
- Comments: 0
- Recent change: new at 2026-08-19T16:09:04.437Z

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 5)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 37)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 35)

Summary:

The new murder-conviction market moved to 63.5% Yes as volume and liquidity increased and its spread narrowed; it remains a small sentiment market, not evidence.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:01 p.m. Eastern on August 19, the active unresolved Polymarket contract showed 63.5% Yes and 36.5% No, $581.32 volume, about $322.89 liquidity, and a 63-cent bid versus 64-cent ask. [VERIFIED FACT] Since the August 18 evening snapshot, Yes fell 4.5 percentage points while volume rose by about $451.72, liquidity rose by about $172.95, and the spread narrowed from 44 cents to one cent. [SPECULATION] This is still a small prediction market's sentiment snapshot—not evidence, testimony, a jury poll, or a reliable estimate of the legal result.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 12:01:36 p.m. Eastern on August 19, 2026, Polymarket market 3709100 was active and unresolved with Yes/No prices of 0.635/0.365, a last trade of 0.63, best bid 0.63, best ask 0.64, a 0.01 spread, $581.32246 volume, and $322.8943 liquidity.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260819-1201
  - Created: 2026-08-19T16:09:04.437Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-19T16:09:04.437Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The market remains small even though the one-cent displayed spread is much tighter than at launch.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (active, closed, outcomePrices, lastTradePrice, bestBid, bestAsk, spread, volume, and liquidity fields at 12:01:36 p.m. ET) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Compared with the archived August 18 7:05 p.m. snapshot, Yes fell from 68% to 63.5%, volume increased by $451.72246, liquidity increased by $172.9505, and the displayed spread narrowed from 0.44 to 0.01.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-since-launch-snapshot
  - Created: 2026-08-19T16:09:04.437Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-19T16:09:04.437Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: This describes the contract's displayed market fields, not a change in case evidence or an inference about what jurors think.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Current fields at 12:01:36 p.m. ET compared with the archive's cited August 18 7:05:47 p.m. API snapshot) [primary]
- [speculation] The 63.5% display is a small prediction market's sentiment snapshot, not evidence, sworn testimony, a jury poll, or a dependable forecast of the verdict.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260819-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-08-19T16:09:04.437Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-19T16:09:04.437Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Read the price only with volume, liquidity, spread, deadline, and murder-only resolution criteria displayed beside it.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Market size, price, order-book, liquidity, and resolution fields at the stated snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? — https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder (Public question and resolution rules) [market]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:polymarket-20260819-noon-supersedes-launch
  - Published: 2026-08-19T16:09:04.437Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260819-1201, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-since-launch-snapshot, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260819-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Polymarket launches a Lindsay Clancy murder-conviction market · August 18 — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/209. The August 19 noon snapshot updates the launch display with materially changed price, volume, liquidity, and spread while retaining the same resolution rules and evidentiary caveat.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-polymarket-20260819-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-19T16:09:04.437Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260819-1201, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260819-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's market-interpretation limits qualify this snapshot: even with more trading and a tighter spread, it remains sentiment under platform-specific rules rather than evidence.
Links:
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

Attachments:
- No approved attachments on this card.