# Prediction markets · fourth deliberation-day noon snapshot

Topic: Prediction Markets
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/269
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/269.md
Updated: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #26: Prediction markets · fourth deliberation-day noon snapshot

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/269
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/269.md
- Topic: Prediction Markets
- Updated: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:fourth-deliberation-day-noon-snapshot-20260901
- Published: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z
- Materially updated: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z
- Comments: 0

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 25)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 87)
- Cross-filed: Trial-Day Developments — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/trial-day-developments (sort 78)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 92)

Summary:

After the public impasse note, Polymarket displayed 17.5% and Manifold 48.75%; their 31.25-point divergence is platform sentiment, not evidence or jury information.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:04:50 p.m. Eastern on September 1, unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed 17.5% Yes and unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed 48.75%. Since the August 31 evening capture, Polymarket fell 12.0 percentage points while reported total volume rose about $31,059.76; Manifold fell about 3.07 points while reported total volume rose 131 Mana. The absolute cross-platform gap widened from about 22.32 points to about 31.25 points. [SPECULATION] The displays and movements are platform sentiment, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities. [UNKNOWN] The public APIs do not establish why participants traded or how much, if any, movement followed the public impasse note rather than other coverage.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 12:04:50 p.m. Eastern on September 1, active unresolved Polymarket market 3709100 displayed Yes/No 0.175/0.825, last-trade field 0.18, best Yes bid 0.17, ask 0.18, reported total volume $131,464.650566, rolling 24-hour volume $38,814.780712, and liquidity $12,858.5609.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-polymarket-20260901-1204
  - Created: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The displayed outcome price, last trade, order book, volume, and liquidity are distinct platform fields; none reveals jury discussions or a legal outcome.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official Gamma API fields captured at 12:04:50 p.m. ET September 1, 2026) [primary]
- [verified_fact] At the same capture time, unresolved Manifold market ytIdLCSgAR displayed probability 0.4874944691, 5,904.775250 Mana total volume, 141 Mana rolling 24-hour volume, and 22 unique bettors.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-manifold-20260901-1204
  - Created: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Manifold uses play-money Mana and has different mechanics and participation from Polymarket; its displayed probability is not court evidence or a calibrated jury forecast.
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official market API fields captured at 12:04:50 p.m. ET September 1, 2026) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Compared with the archived August 31 7:04:44 p.m. snapshots, Polymarket's Yes display fell 12.0 percentage points and total volume rose about $31,059.76, while Manifold's probability fell about 3.07 points and total volume rose 131 Mana; the absolute platform gap widened from about 22.32 points to about 31.25 points.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-noon-divergence-20260901
  - Created: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The arithmetic establishes platform movement, not its cause. The APIs do not show whether the movement followed the impasse note, and divergent prices do not establish guilt, criminal responsibility, or any private jury information.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Current official fields compared with the archive's August 31 7:04:44 p.m. official API capture) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Current official fields compared with the archive's August 31 7:04:44 p.m. official API capture) [primary]
- [speculation] The 17.5% and 48.75% platform displays are sentiment records, not court evidence, a representative jury poll, an authenticated deliberation leak, or dependable verdict probabilities.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z
  - Updated: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: No public source establishes traders' motives, and the movements support no inference about guilt, criminal responsibility, staging, or third-party involvement.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official unresolved Polymarket snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official unresolved Manifold snapshot) [primary]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:fourth-deliberation-noon-supersedes-prior-evening
  - Published: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-polymarket-20260901-1204, lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-manifold-20260901-1204, lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-noon-divergence-20260901, lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · third deliberation-day evening snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/267. The September 1 noon capture replaces the August 31 evening snapshot after material movement on both platforms, while preserving the distinction between platform sentiment and court evidence.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:standing-limits-qualify-fourth-deliberation-noon
  - Published: 2026-09-01T16:09:22.585Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-markets-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's standing market-method limits require interpreting the current platform displays as sentiment rather than evidence, adjudication, or authenticated jury information.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:fourth-deliberation-evening-supersedes-noon
  - Published: 2026-09-01T23:06:40.570Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-polymarket-20260901-1903, lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-manifold-20260901-1903, lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-evening-divergence-20260901, lc:markets:claim:fourth-deliberation-evening-markets-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Prediction markets · fourth deliberation-day evening snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/271. The evening capture replaces the noon snapshot after both platforms moved and Day 25 ended without a verdict, while preserving the distinction between platform sentiment and court evidence.
Links:
- https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-o
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

Attachments:
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