# Polymarket snapshot · August 24 evening

Topic: Prediction Markets
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/240
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/240.md
Updated: 2026-08-24T23:08:41.728Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #19: Polymarket snapshot · August 24 evening

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/240
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/240.md
- Topic: Prediction Markets
- Updated: 2026-08-24T23:08:41.728Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:polymarket-snapshot-20260824-evening
- Published: 2026-08-24T23:08:41.728Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-24T23:08:41.728Z
- Comments: 0
- Recent change: new at 2026-08-24T23:08:41.728Z

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 18)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 65)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 63)

Summary:

Four later records accompanied a retreat from the noon display to 23.5% Yes and a narrower book; this remains thin trader sentiment rather than evidence.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:03 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved contract displayed 23.5% Yes and 76.5% No, a 22-cent last-trade field, and a 22/25-cent Yes book. Four records were added after the noon capture, including three around 3:28 p.m. and one at 7:01 p.m. [UNKNOWN] The records do not establish participant motives or link the movement to particular testimony. [SPECULATION] The market is not evidence, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 7:03:21 p.m. Eastern on August 24, Polymarket market 3709100 was active and unresolved with Yes/No 0.235/0.765, last-trade field 0.22, best Yes bid 0.22, ask 0.25, spread 0.03, $2,981.032069 total volume, $160.579741 rolling 24-hour volume, and $2,214.0552 liquidity.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260824-1903
  - Created: 2026-08-24T23:08:41.728Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-24T23:08:41.728Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Displayed price, last trade, and the bid-ask book are distinct measures; the market remains small and should not be presented as calibrated trial odds.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official Gamma fields captured 7:03:21 p.m. ET) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Since the noon snapshot, displayed Yes fell 4.5 percentage points, the last-trade field fell two cents, reported total volume rose $82.246409, the spread narrowed seven cents, and liquidity rose $394.9695 across four additional records.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-20260824-afternoon
  - Created: 2026-08-24T23:08:41.728Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-24T23:08:41.728Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Rolling 24-hour volume fell as older activity aged out; the record changes establish market mechanics, not why participants traded.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Evening fields compared with the archived August 24 noon snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Polymarket official trade records · Lindsay Clancy market — https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x4769e6eb48b0e587abc7972c12c0b70f513b4f973f2b9fd30e3040d13f9b67c2&limit=100 (Four records after the noon capture: 3:27:51, 3:27:52, 3:28:00, and 7:01:13 p.m. ET) [primary]
- [speculation] The 23.5% display is thin-market trader sentiment, not sworn testimony, a court finding, a jury poll, or a dependable forecast of the verdict.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260824-evening-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-08-24T23:08:41.728Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-24T23:08:41.728Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Interpret it only with the small total volume, displayed order book, spread, liquidity, and murder-only resolution rules.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official market price, order-book, volume, liquidity, and unresolved fields) [primary]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:polymarket-20260824-evening-supersedes-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-24T23:08:41.728Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260824-1903, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-20260824-afternoon, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260824-evening-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Polymarket snapshot · August 24 noon — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/236. The evening snapshot replaces the noon reading after four records changed the displayed price, book, spread, volume, and liquidity without establishing trader motives.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-polymarket-20260824-evening
  - Published: 2026-08-24T23:08:41.728Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260824-1903, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260824-evening-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's standing interpretation limits qualify this small-market snapshot as sentiment rather than evidence, adjudication, or a jury signal.
Links:
- https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x4769e6eb48b0e587abc7972c12c0b70f513b4f973f2b9fd30e3040d13f9b67c2&limit=100
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

Attachments:
- No approved attachments on this card.