# Manifold snapshot · August 24 noon

Topic: Prediction Markets
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/237
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/237.md
Updated: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #18: Manifold snapshot · August 24 noon

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/237
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/237.md
- Topic: Prediction Markets
- Updated: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:manifold-snapshot-20260824-noon
- Published: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
- Comments: 0
- Recent change: new at 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 17)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 62)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 60)

Summary:

The small play-money market reached 41.54% after mixed API activity and two additional bettors since the last published snapshot; it remains sentiment, not evidence.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:01 p.m. Eastern, the unresolved Manifold market reported 41.54%, 2,416.70 Mana total volume, 69.97 Mana rolling 24-hour volume, 14 unique bettors, and 71 API records. Since the last published snapshot, five new records included filled, cancelled, and cash-out activity. [UNKNOWN] The records do not reveal participants' reasons or provide a reliable legal forecast.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 12:01:50.584 p.m. Eastern on August 24, the unresolved Manifold market reported probability 0.4153598650609116, 2,416.696199471875 Mana total volume, 69.96702814305034 Mana rolling 24-hour volume, 14 unique bettors, and 71 API activity records.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260824-1201
  - Created: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: API record count is not equivalent to completed trades or unique participants, and rolling volume changes as older activity leaves the 24-hour window.
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Official API snapshot captured 12:01:50.584 p.m. ET) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API activity records for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=ytIdLCSgAR&limit=1000 (71 returned activity records at capture) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Since the last published August 21 evening snapshot, probability rose about 3.72 percentage points, total volume rose 74.967028 Mana, unique bettors increased from 12 to 14, and five API records were added.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-change-since-20260821-evening
  - Created: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The five records include one cancelled order and a negative-amount cash-out record; they must not be described as five completed trades.
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (August 24 fields compared with the archived August 21 evening snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Manifold official API activity records for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=ytIdLCSgAR&limit=1000 (Five records added after the August 21 evening capture: one August 23 morning No fill and four 8:20:51 p.m. records) [primary]
- [unknown] The play-money market data do not establish a change in the legal merits, guilt, criminal responsibility, or eventual verdict.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260824-noon-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Low participation, broad resolution criteria, and mixed API activity make it a small user-driven sentiment indicator, not evidence or a jury poll.
  - Source: Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children? — https://manifold.markets/Marian/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-of (Market panel, participation display, and resolution criteria) [market]
  - Source: About Manifold: play-money markets and Mana — https://manifold.markets/about (Platform explanation of Mana and play-money markets) [official]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:manifold-20260824-noon-supersedes-20260821-evening
  - Published: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260824-1201, lc:markets:claim:manifold-change-since-20260821-evening, lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260824-noon-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Manifold snapshot · August 21 evening — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/231. The noon snapshot replaces the last published Manifold reading after material play-money activity and two additional bettors changed the display.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-manifold-20260824-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260824-1201, lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260824-noon-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's standing interpretation limits qualify this low-participation play-money snapshot as sentiment rather than evidence.
Links:
- https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=ytIdLCSgAR&limit=1000
- https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR
- https://manifold.markets/Marian/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-of
- https://manifold.markets/about

Attachments:
- No approved attachments on this card.