# Polymarket snapshot · August 24 noon

Topic: Prediction Markets
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/236
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/236.md
Updated: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #17: Polymarket snapshot · August 24 noon

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/236
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/236.md
- Topic: Prediction Markets
- Updated: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:polymarket-snapshot-20260824-noon
- Published: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
- Comments: 0
- Recent change: new at 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 16)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 61)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 59)

Summary:

Three morning fills accompanied a seven-point rise to 28% Yes, while the spread widened and liquidity fell; the thin market remains sentiment, not evidence.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:01 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved contract displayed 28% Yes and 72% No, a 24-cent last-trade field, and a 23/33-cent Yes book. Three morning fills added $78.33 of reported volume. [UNKNOWN] The public records do not establish why participants traded. [SPECULATION] The change is not testimony, a court finding, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 12:01:50.584 p.m. Eastern on August 24, Polymarket market 3709100 was active and unresolved with Yes/No 0.28/0.72, last-trade field 0.24, best Yes bid 0.23, ask 0.33, spread 0.10, $2,898.785660 total volume, $954.327158 rolling 24-hour volume, and $1,819.0857 liquidity.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260824-1201
  - Created: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Displayed price, last trade, and bid-ask book are different measures; the ten-point spread and falling liquidity underscore the market's thinness.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official Gamma fields captured 12:01:50.584 p.m. ET) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Since the August 23 evening snapshot, displayed Yes rose seven points, the last-trade field rose four cents, reported total volume rose $78.333332, the spread widened six cents, and liquidity fell $339.6795, about 15.7%, across three new fills.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-20260824-morning
  - Created: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The records establish transaction fields and timing, not trader motives or a response to any courtroom development.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Noon fields compared with archived August 23 evening snapshot) [primary]
  - Source: Polymarket official trade records · Lindsay Clancy market — https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x4769e6eb48b0e587abc7972c12c0b70f513b4f973f2b9fd30e3040d13f9b67c2&limit=100 (Three fills at 7:34:07, 7:38:06, and 7:46:58 a.m. ET on August 24) [primary]
- [verified_fact] The new records were a 29.5-unit No buy at 0.81, a 28-unit Yes buy at 0.19, and a 20.833332-unit Yes buy at 0.2399999674.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-fills-20260824-morning
  - Created: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The mixed direction and three-record sample should not be characterized as consensus, a jury signal, or evidence of what caused the move.
  - Source: Polymarket official trade records · Lindsay Clancy market — https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x4769e6eb48b0e587abc7972c12c0b70f513b4f973f2b9fd30e3040d13f9b67c2&limit=100 (Official trade records between 7:34:07 and 7:46:58 a.m. ET) [primary]
- [speculation] The 28% display is thin-market trader sentiment, not sworn testimony, an adjudication, a jury poll, or a dependable forecast of the verdict.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260824-noon-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Interpret it only alongside the three fills, 23/33-cent book, ten-point spread, liquidity, volume, deadline, and murder-only resolution rules.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Market price, order-book, volume, liquidity, and unresolved fields) [primary]
  - Source: Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? — https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder (Public market question and resolution rules) [market]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:polymarket-20260824-noon-supersedes-20260823-evening
  - Published: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260824-1201, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-20260824-morning, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-fills-20260824-morning, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260824-noon-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Polymarket snapshot · August 23 evening — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/233. The noon snapshot replaces the prior evening reading after three fills materially changed displayed prices, spread, volume, and liquidity without establishing why the market moved.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-polymarket-20260824-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-24T16:15:54.223Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260824-1201, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260824-noon-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's standing interpretation limits qualify this thin-market snapshot as trader sentiment rather than evidence, adjudication, or a jury signal.
Links:
- https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x4769e6eb48b0e587abc7972c12c0b70f513b4f973f2b9fd30e3040d13f9b67c2&limit=100
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

Attachments:
- No approved attachments on this card.