# Polymarket snapshot · August 23 noon

Topic: Prediction Markets
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/232
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/232.md
Updated: 2026-08-23T16:08:05.351Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #15: Polymarket snapshot · August 23 noon

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/232
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/232.md
- Topic: Prediction Markets
- Updated: 2026-08-23T16:08:05.351Z
- Stable key: lc:markets:card:polymarket-snapshot-20260823-noon
- Published: 2026-08-23T16:08:05.351Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-23T16:08:05.351Z
- Comments: 0
- Recent change: new at 2026-08-23T16:08:05.351Z

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 14)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 57)
- Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 55)

Summary:

Two tiny fills accompanied a four-point drop in displayed Yes and a much lower last-trade field, but $9.83 of new turnover and a 14-point spread make the signal especially noisy.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 12:02 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved contract displayed 32% Yes and 68% No, while its last-trade field was 25 cents and the Yes order book was 25-cent bid/39-cent ask. Two new records since Saturday evening added only $9.83 of reported volume. [UNKNOWN] The public records do not establish why either participant traded. [SPECULATION] This thin, wide-spread market is sentiment—not case evidence, an adjudication, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At 12:02:41.251 p.m. Eastern on August 23, Polymarket market 3709100 was active and unresolved with displayed Yes/No prices 0.32/0.68, last-trade field 0.25, best Yes bid 0.25, best ask 0.39, spread 0.14, $1,944.458502 total volume, $9.83 rolling 24-hour volume, and $1,782.5554 liquidity.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260823-1202
  - Created: 2026-08-23T16:08:05.351Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-23T16:08:05.351Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Displayed outcome prices, the latest-trade field, and the live order book are non-equivalent measures; the 14-point spread makes a single odds statement misleading.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Official Gamma market fields captured 12:02:41.251 p.m. ET on August 23, 2026) [primary]
- [verified_fact] Since the August 22 evening snapshot, displayed Yes fell four percentage points, the last-trade field fell from 0.62 to 0.25, the best ask fell eight cents, and reported total volume rose $9.83 across two new records: a five-unit No sell at 0.53 at 9:12:01 a.m. and a 4.83-unit Yes sell at 0.25 at 9:12:04 a.m. Eastern.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-20260823-morning
  - Created: 2026-08-23T16:08:05.351Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-23T16:08:05.351Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: The two records show what traded, not why. The low turnover, mixed outcome directions, unchanged 0.25 bid, and wide spread prevent attributing the move to case news or broad sentiment.
  - Source: Polymarket official trade records · Lindsay Clancy market — https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x4769e6eb48b0e587abc7972c12c0b70f513b4f973f2b9fd30e3040d13f9b67c2&limit=100 (Two post-baseline records at 9:12:01 and 9:12:04 a.m. ET on August 23, 2026) [primary]
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Noon fields compared with the archived August 22 evening snapshot) [primary]
- [speculation] The 32% display and 25-cent last-trade field are thin market sentiment, not sworn evidence, a court finding, a jury poll, or a dependable verdict probability.
  - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260823-noon-not-evidence
  - Created: 2026-08-23T16:08:05.351Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-23T16:08:05.351Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: Interpret the snapshot only beside the two small fills, 25/39-cent book, 14-point spread, total volume, liquidity, deadline, and murder-only resolution rules.
  - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Market price, order-book, volume, liquidity, and unresolved-status fields) [primary]
  - Source: Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? — https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder (Public market question and resolution rules) [market]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:polymarket-20260823-noon-supersedes-20260821-evening
  - Published: 2026-08-23T16:08:05.351Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260823-1202, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-20260823-morning, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260823-noon-not-evidence
- SUPERSEDES: Polymarket snapshot · August 21 evening — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/230. This Sunday noon snapshot replaces the last published Polymarket reading after two new fills materially changed the displayed and last-trade price fields, while documenting that turnover remained extremely small.
- Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-polymarket-20260823-noon
  - Published: 2026-08-23T16:08:05.351Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260823-1202, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260823-noon-not-evidence
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's standing market-interpretation limits qualify this two-trade, wide-spread snapshot as noisy sentiment rather than evidence or a jury signal.
Links:
- https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x4769e6eb48b0e587abc7972c12c0b70f513b4f973f2b9fd30e3040d13f9b67c2&limit=100
- https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100
- https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder

Attachments:
- No approved attachments on this card.