# Manifold snapshot · August 20 evening Topic: Prediction Markets Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/222 Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/222.md Updated: 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them. #### Card #10: Manifold snapshot · August 20 evening - URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/222 - Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/222.md - Topic: Prediction Markets - Updated: 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z - Stable key: lc:markets:card:manifold-snapshot-20260820-evening - Published: 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z - Materially updated: 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z - Comments: 0 - Recent change: new at 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z Filed topics: - Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 9) - Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 47) - Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 45) Summary: A filled 500-Mana No position moved the small play-money market from about 57.1% to 30.1%; this is trader sentiment, not evidence. Body: [VERIFIED FACT] At 7:03 p.m. Eastern, the unresolved Manifold market displayed about 30.15%, 2,154.43 Mana total volume, 1,177.98 Mana in 24-hour volume, 11 unique bettors, and 55 API activity records. A filled 500-Mana No position at 5:58 p.m. led a roughly 26.91-point fall from the noon reading. [UNKNOWN] This small, user-created play-money market cannot reveal why a trader acted and does not establish evidence, guilt, criminal responsibility, or the eventual verdict. Structured claims: - [verified_fact] At 7:03:48.875 p.m. Eastern on August 20, 2026, the unresolved Manifold market reported probability 0.3014970987, 2,154.4346696309026 Mana total volume, 1,177.982702508031 Mana 24-hour volume, 11 unique bettors, and 55 API activity records. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260820-1903 - Created: 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z - Updated: 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z - Evidence/inference boundary: Activity-record counts are not interchangeable with unique bettors or completed trades, although the four post-noon records reviewed here were filled and not cancelled. - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (probability, volume, volume24Hours, uniqueBettorCount, isResolved, and last-activity fields at 7:03:48.875 p.m. ET) [primary] - Source: Manifold official API bet records for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=ytIdLCSgAR&limit=1000 (55 returned activity records at the stated snapshot) [primary] - [verified_fact] Since the noon snapshot, the displayed probability fell about 26.9105 percentage points, total volume rose by 532 Mana, and four filled API records appeared; a 500-Mana No position at 5:58:58.822 p.m. moved the display from about 57.06% to 30.15% before three smaller records ended at the same reading. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-change-since-20260820-noon - Created: 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z - Updated: 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z - Evidence/inference boundary: This identifies the public market mechanism for the display change, not the trader's reason and not any change in courtroom evidence. - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Evening fields compared with the archived August 20 12:03:14 p.m. snapshot) [primary] - Source: Manifold official API bet records for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=ytIdLCSgAR&limit=1000 (Four filled post-noon records through 5:58:59.356 p.m. ET, led by the 500-Mana No record) [primary] - [unknown] The public market data do not reveal why the trader changed position and do not establish any change in legal merits, guilt, criminal responsibility, or the eventual verdict. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260820-evening-not-evidence - Created: 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z - Updated: 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z - Evidence/inference boundary: Manifold uses play money; this is a small user-created sentiment market with its own resolution criteria, not a jury poll or court record. - Source: Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children? — https://manifold.markets/Marian/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-of (Market panel, participation display, and resolution criteria) [market] - Source: About Manifold: play-money markets and Mana — https://manifold.markets/about (Platform explanation of Mana and play-money markets) [official] Evidence relationships: - Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:manifold-20260820-evening-supersedes-noon - Published: 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260820-1903, lc:markets:claim:manifold-change-since-20260820-noon, lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260820-evening-not-evidence - SUPERSEDES: Manifold snapshot · August 20 noon — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/220. The evening snapshot replaces the noon reading after a filled 500-Mana No position materially changed the displayed probability and volume. - Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-manifold-20260820-evening - Published: 2026-08-20T23:14:43.629Z - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:manifold-snapshot-20260820-1903, lc:markets:claim:manifold-20260820-evening-not-evidence - QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's market-interpretation limits qualify the evening Manifold snapshot as play-money sentiment rather than evidence. Links: - https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR - https://manifold.markets/Marian/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-of - https://manifold.markets/about Attachments: - No approved attachments on this card.