# Polymarket snapshot · August 19 evening Topic: Prediction Markets Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/216 Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/216.md Updated: 2026-08-19T23:11:42.567Z Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them. #### Card #07: Polymarket snapshot · August 19 evening - URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/216 - Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/216.md - Topic: Prediction Markets - Updated: 2026-08-19T23:11:42.567Z - Stable key: lc:markets:card:polymarket-snapshot-20260819-evening - Published: 2026-08-19T23:11:42.567Z - Materially updated: 2026-08-19T23:11:42.567Z - Comments: 0 - Recent change: updated at 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z Filed topics: - Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 6) - Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 41) - Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 39) Summary: The contract displayed 70% Yes after additional trading, but its last trade was 64 cents and the bid-ask spread widened; this remains small-market sentiment, not evidence. Body: [VERIFIED FACT] At 7:02 p.m. Eastern, the active unresolved Polymarket contract displayed 70% Yes and 30% No, a 64-cent last trade, 65-cent bid, 75-cent ask, $722.14 total volume, and about $314.86 liquidity. Since noon, Yes rose 6.5 points and volume grew by about $140.82 while the displayed spread widened from one cent to ten cents. [SPECULATION] This is a small prediction market's sentiment snapshot—not evidence, testimony, a jury poll, or a reliable estimate of the legal result. Structured claims: - [verified_fact] At 7:02:27 p.m. Eastern on August 19, 2026, Polymarket market 3709100 was active and unresolved with displayed Yes/No prices of 0.70/0.30, a last trade of 0.64, best bid 0.65, best ask 0.75, a 0.10 spread, $722.140497 total volume, $592.540497 24-hour volume, and $314.8553 liquidity. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260819-1902 - Created: 2026-08-19T23:11:42.567Z - Updated: 2026-08-19T23:11:42.567Z - Evidence/inference boundary: The 70-cent displayed outcome price is not the same field as the 64-cent last trade, and the ten-cent spread signals material price uncertainty in a small market. - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (active, closed, outcomePrices, lastTradePrice, bestBid, bestAsk, spread, volume, volume24hr, and liquidity fields at 7:02:27 p.m. ET) [primary] - [verified_fact] Compared with the archived August 19 noon snapshot, displayed Yes rose from 63.5% to 70%, total volume increased by $140.818037, liquidity decreased by about $8.039, and the displayed spread widened from 0.01 to 0.10. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-since-20260819-noon - Created: 2026-08-19T23:11:42.567Z - Updated: 2026-08-19T23:11:42.567Z - Evidence/inference boundary: These are contract-field changes, not changes in case evidence or a measure of what jurors think. - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Current fields at 7:02:27 p.m. ET compared with the archive's cited August 19 12:01:36 p.m. snapshot) [primary] - [speculation] The 70% display is a small prediction market's sentiment snapshot, not evidence, sworn testimony, a jury poll, or a dependable forecast of the verdict. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260819-evening-not-evidence - Created: 2026-08-19T23:11:42.567Z - Updated: 2026-08-19T23:11:42.567Z - Evidence/inference boundary: Read the price only with volume, liquidity, spread, deadline, and murder-only resolution criteria displayed beside it. - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Market size, price, order-book, liquidity, and resolution fields at the stated snapshot) [primary] - Source: Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? — https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder (Public question and resolution rules) [market] Evidence relationships: - Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:polymarket-20260819-evening-supersedes-noon - Published: 2026-08-19T23:11:42.567Z - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260819-1902, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-since-20260819-noon, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260819-evening-not-evidence - SUPERSEDES: Polymarket snapshot · August 19 noon — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/212. The evening snapshot updates the noon display after a material price, volume, liquidity, and spread change while retaining the same resolution rules and evidentiary caveat. - Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-polymarket-20260819-evening - Published: 2026-08-19T23:11:42.567Z - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260819-1902, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260819-evening-not-evidence - QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's market-interpretation limits qualify this snapshot: price movement in a small, wide-spread contract remains sentiment rather than evidence. - Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:polymarket-20260820-noon-supersedes-evening - Published: 2026-08-20T16:13:38.863Z - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260820-1202, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-change-since-20260819-evening, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-20260820-noon-not-evidence - SUPERSEDES: Polymarket snapshot · August 20 noon — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/219. The August 20 noon snapshot updates the prior evening display after material price, volume, liquidity, and spread changes while retaining the same evidentiary limits. Links: - https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 - https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder Attachments: - No approved attachments on this card.