# Polymarket launches a Lindsay Clancy murder-conviction market · August 18 Topic: Prediction Markets Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/209 Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/209.md Updated: 2026-08-18T23:14:35.588Z Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them. #### Card #05: Polymarket launches a Lindsay Clancy murder-conviction market · August 18 - URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/209 - Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/209.md - Topic: Prediction Markets - Updated: 2026-08-18T23:14:35.588Z - Stable key: lc:markets:card:polymarket-launch-20260818 - Published: 2026-08-18T23:14:35.588Z - Materially updated: 2026-08-18T23:14:35.588Z - Comments: 0 - Recent change: new at 2026-08-18T23:14:35.588Z Filed topics: - Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 4) - Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 34) - Cross-filed: Unresolved Questions — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/unresolved-questions (sort 33) Summary: A new low-volume Polymarket contract showed 68% Yes at 7:05 p.m., but its wide spread, small liquidity, deadline, and murder-only rules make it sentiment—not evidence or a clean forecast. Body: [VERIFIED FACT] Polymarket launched an exact Lindsay Clancy market at about 4:00 p.m. Eastern on August 18. At 7:05 p.m., the active unresolved contract showed 68% Yes and 32% No, $129.60 volume, about $149.94 liquidity, and a 46-cent bid versus 90-cent ask. [VERIFIED FACT] Yes requires at least one murder conviction by December 31, 2026, or after a qualifying retrial begun by then; an all-murder acquittal including lack of criminal responsibility resolves No. [SPECULATION] The price is thin, wide-spread trader sentiment and is not courtroom evidence, a jury poll, or directly comparable to Manifold's differently worded play-money question. Structured claims: - [verified_fact] Polymarket event 872462 and market 3709100 were created at approximately 3:59:44 p.m. Eastern on August 18, 2026, and were active and unresolved at the evening cutoff. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-launched-20260818 - Created: 2026-08-18T23:14:35.588Z - Updated: 2026-08-18T23:14:35.588Z - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (createdAt, startDate, active, closed, and market ID fields; accessed 7:05:47 p.m. ET) [primary] - Source: Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? — https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder (Public market page and resolution panel) [market] - [verified_fact] At 7:05:47 p.m. Eastern, the contract displayed Yes/No prices of 0.68/0.32, $129.60 volume, about $149.94 liquidity, a last trade of 0.84, best bid 0.46, best ask 0.90, and a 0.44 spread. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260818-1905 - Created: 2026-08-18T23:14:35.588Z - Updated: 2026-08-18T23:14:35.588Z - Evidence/inference boundary: The large bid-ask spread and low volume make the displayed probability especially unstable and sensitive to small orders. - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (outcomePrices, volume, liquidity, lastTradePrice, bestBid, bestAsk, and spread fields at 7:05:47 p.m. ET) [primary] - [verified_fact] The contract resolves Yes for at least one murder conviction by December 31, 2026, or after a qualifying retrial begun by that deadline; dismissal, no judgment, or acquittal on every murder charge including lack of criminal responsibility resolves No. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-resolution-criteria - Created: 2026-08-18T23:14:35.588Z - Updated: 2026-08-18T23:14:35.588Z - Evidence/inference boundary: These platform rules bundle deadline and retrial conditions with a murder-only result. They are not identical to the legal questions the jury must decide or to the Manifold market's wording. - Source: Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder? — https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder (Resolution rules beneath the market question) [market] - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (description and endDate fields) [primary] - [speculation] The 68% display is a small, newly launched prediction market's sentiment snapshot, not evidence, testimony, a jury poll, or a reliable estimate of the legal result. - Stable key: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-not-evidence - Created: 2026-08-18T23:14:35.588Z - Updated: 2026-08-18T23:14:35.588Z - Evidence/inference boundary: The price should be read only with its $129.60 volume, approximately $149.94 liquidity, 44-cent spread, deadline, and resolution criteria displayed beside it. - Source: Polymarket Gamma API · Lindsay Clancy market 3709100 — https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 (Liquidity, volume, order-book, and spread fields at the stated snapshot) [primary] Evidence relationships: - Relationship stable key: lc:markets:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-polymarket-launch - Published: 2026-08-18T23:14:35.588Z - Cited claim IDs: lc:markets:claim:polymarket-snapshot-20260818-1905, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-resolution-criteria, lc:markets:claim:polymarket-not-evidence - QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The archive's market-interpretation limits qualify the new Polymarket snapshot: it is low-volume, wide-spread sentiment with murder-only and deadline rules, not evidence or a directly comparable second forecast. Links: - https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR - https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/3709100 - https://polymarket.com/event/lindsay-clancy-convicted-of-murder Attachments: - No approved attachments on this card.