# Manifold market moved to 49% — August 16 evening snapshot

Topic: Prediction Markets
Topic URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets
Card URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/191
Markdown URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/191.md
Updated: 2026-08-16T23:11:39.354Z

Notice: This archive documents claims, it does not automatically endorse them.

#### Card #04: Manifold market moved to 49% — August 16 evening snapshot

- URL: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/191
- Markdown: https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/191.md
- Topic: Prediction Markets
- Updated: 2026-08-16T23:11:39.354Z
- Stable key: lindsay:card:market:manifold-snapshot:2026-08-16-evening
- Published: 2026-08-16T23:11:39.354Z
- Materially updated: 2026-08-16T23:11:39.354Z
- Comments: 0
- Recent change: new at 2026-08-16T23:11:39.354Z

Filed topics:
- Primary: Prediction Markets — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets (sort 3)
- Cross-filed: Source Library & Methodology — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/source-library-methodology (sort 20)

Summary:

A dated 49% play-money reading with 38 bet records and eight unique bettors; it is sentiment data, not courtroom evidence.

Body:

[VERIFIED FACT] At 7:08:39 p.m. Eastern on August 16, Manifold's official API reported a 49% reading, approximately 975.45 Mana in total volume, approximately 403.20 Mana in 24-hour volume, eight unique bettors, and 38 bet records. Bet records may include cancelled or zero-amount entries and therefore are not described as 38 completed trades. The latest recorded market activity occurred at 1:57:42.623 p.m. Eastern, while the market remained unresolved. [UNKNOWN] The public market data do not establish why traders moved the price and cannot establish guilt, criminal responsibility, or the eventual verdict.

Structured claims:
- [verified_fact] At the August 16, 2026 7:08:39 p.m. Eastern snapshot, the unresolved market displayed 49%; Manifold's official API reported 975.4519671228718 Mana of total volume, 403.2043412327745 Mana of 24-hour volume, eight unique bettors, and 38 bet records. Bet records may include cancelled or zero-amount entries and therefore are not equivalent to 38 completed trades. Its latest recorded bet and update occurred at 1:57:42.623 p.m. Eastern that day.
  - Stable key: lc:market:claim:manifold-20260816-evening-snapshot
  - Created: 2026-08-16T23:11:39.354Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-16T23:11:39.354Z
  - Source: Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children? — https://manifold.markets/Marian/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-of (Market panel and activity display; accessed August 16, 2026 at 7:08:39 p.m. ET) [market]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Snapshot fields probability=0.48999999999999994, volume=975.4519671228718, volume24Hours=403.2043412327745, uniqueBettorCount=8, isResolved=false, lastUpdatedTime=1786903062623; 38 bet records checked at capture) [primary]
- [unknown] The public market data do not reveal why individual traders changed positions and do not establish any change in the legal merits, guilt, criminal responsibility, or eventual verdict.
  - Stable key: lc:market:claim:manifold-20260816-interpretation-limit
  - Created: 2026-08-16T23:11:39.354Z
  - Updated: 2026-08-16T23:11:39.354Z
  - Evidence/inference boundary: This is a small user-created play-money sentiment market whose criteria bundle several legal outcomes; a price move is not court evidence and must not be treated as one.
  - Source: Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children? — https://manifold.markets/Marian/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-of (Market panel, participation display, and resolution criteria) [market]
  - Source: Manifold official API record for market ytIdLCSgAR — https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR (Probability, volume, participation, and unresolved-status fields; no trader-reason field) [primary]
  - Source: About Manifold: play-money markets and Mana — https://manifold.markets/about (Why use play money? — Mana description) [official]

Evidence relationships:
- Relationship stable key: lc:market:relationship:20260816-snapshot-supersedes-20260815
  - Published: 2026-08-16T23:11:39.354Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:market:claim:manifold-20260816-evening-snapshot, lc:market:claim:manifold-noon-snapshot
- SUPERSEDES: Dedicated Manifold market verified — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/144. The August 16 snapshot supersedes the August 15 reading only as the market's current dated value: 49% with 38 bet records and eight unique bettors versus the preserved prior 59% snapshot with 21 bet records and six unique bettors. Bet records may include cancelled or zero-amount entries. This is market movement, not a correction to courtroom evidence.
- Relationship stable key: lc:market:relationship:interpretation-qualifies-20260816-snapshot
  - Published: 2026-08-16T23:11:39.354Z
  - Cited claim IDs: lc:market:claim:manifold-play-money, lc:market:claim:market-not-case-evidence, lc:market:claim:manifold-20260816-evening-snapshot, lc:market:claim:manifold-20260816-interpretation-limit
- QUALIFIES: How to read the market snapshot — https://lindsay.conspirograph.com/topic/prediction-markets/card/146. The play-money, low-participation, and bundled-outcome limits qualify any inference drawn from the 49% market snapshot and its ten-point movement since August 15.
Links:
- https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/ytIdLCSgAR
- https://manifold.markets/Marian/will-lindsay-clancy-be-convicted-of
- https://manifold.markets/about

Attachments:
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